MSB 1.67% 91.5¢ mesoblast limited

It's not overhyped though. The problems are many and are...

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    It's not overhyped though. The problems are many and are interrelated.

    One is that this virus is new and we don't have any antibodies or vaccine for it.

    I think without going too much offtopic the issue is about the mutation potential of the virus. It's already mutated twice in a short space of time, from animal to human, and then human to human transmission.
    It's the speed of the mutations that have health specialists in the field so worried. They are calm when talking of course.

    Because of the mutations already in such a short time, it is entirely possible that it mutates into a more dangerous form.

    That's what is behind the concern. It's also highly contagious, also a serious concern.
    Also the virus can be transmitted by people who are infected but have no symptoms themselves.
    Also the incubation period for the virus is unknown. It's guesswork, and it's possible it's being transmitted by people with little or no symptoms who become 'superspreaders'. This happened in Korea with a 61 year old woman, who managed to infect hundreds, and from a British person travelling after a conference in Singapore who infected many.

    Further, the Chinese haven't been effective because 5 million Chinese moved around the country and overseas before the shutdown.

    Also the authorities are concerned because they are no longer able to track the source of the virus. For instance they have no understanding of the outbreaks that have occurred in Italy and in Iran, they cannot track a clear route from China, to these outbreaks. This means the virus is moving into pandemic status.

    It's a matter of time how this shakes out. The good thing is that the northern hemisphere is moving into warmer conditions, which is when viruses are in decline. But that's a few months away. Focus will shift to southern hemisphere where cold dry conditions optimal for virus spread, will occur. So in Australia I'd expect new protocols, proper hygiene enforcement (it's astounding but many people don't wash their hands properly after using the toilet! or cough into the air, not into the crook of their arm), to slow infection rates, working from home, fewer large gatherings, but not a complete shutdown IMO.

    Also a vaccine is about 14 months away because of the need for demonstrated efficacy and safety in human trials. Fast tracking might be possible but that requires risk taking by authorities which could be expensive and dangerous if the virus is not effective.

    If the virus becomes more dangerous they may be prepared to take a punt not just on the vaccine, but more importantly on treatment for already infected patients. This is similar to the offlabel use, or the limited usage for aGVHD patients using MSB stem cells prior to FDA approval.

    Some antivirual treatments might work, but it's experimental.

    This is unchartered territory and it's important to take this seriously and also take hygiene seriously. IMO.

    {please don't TOU the post for being offtopic, it's got safety issues and FDA approval context that is of public interest}


    Last edited by dolcevita: 25/02/20
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