The first issue for any new drug or treatment is to ensure it does not do any harm. There is no short cut for this step.
You need to look at what stage all those treatments you are researched are at. If it has no previous safety data then, yes, it will still take many years. That will probably take out 80% of competitors. Then how many left working on just ARDS? Because even if this virus gets to a level of spread as the same as regular flu season via vaccines and antivirals, you still get an additional 200K patients each year in USA. But because of the high incidence of ARDS in COVID-19 compared to regular flu, then expect and extra 100K. So that would be 500K annual market size for ARDS in USA. There will be room for more than competitor. But how many competitors are in phase 3 or close to phase 3 for ARDS which are real companies with current real products which can do commercial manufacturing? Again, I say to you, this is a hard problem to solve and has been for a long time. Don't expect a random treatment to be effective because of what a CEO says. There must be scientific rationale.
If you know this industry, you know that most companies are always starved of funds. They always want to try a new indication or the next trial, almost like a mining explorer wanting to fund a new exploration. Very risky, high reward.
So do you think any biotech will sit back and not try to raise funds and find the next big block bluster? Of course, many will take advantage of situation like you saw with Sorento. Lots of speculative and hot money interest atm, so these guys have started to claim all kinds of things. It's a once on a lifetime opportunity for them to raise funds for their company for maybe 3 years cash burn! Same goes for Govt and university research groups. They always are begging for their next research grant. Now, it's easy money for all. The Tulip season will end as quick as it started. Then only the real biotechs companies will stay in the newspapers and the rest you will never hear of again.
If you put all these dodgy biotechs in the same basket as MSB then that will be a mistake, imo.
No one here should be putting 100% of their net worth in this company (or any company). It is a particularly speculative period, I agree.
MSB Price at posting:
$3.65 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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