Top line results from Phase 3 trial in Feb’21 and potential US partnering deal for MSB’s chronic discogenic lower back pain (CLBP) product in FY21: The ongoing 404 patient Phase 3 trial finished enrolment in 1QCY18. Final study visits (24 month follow up) were completed in Mar’20. Data clean-up activities were slowed down due to COVID-19. Results are imminent, expected now in Feb’21. The $1bn deal with Grunenthal for EU and LATAM is the start of more deals to come in our view. MSB remains in active discussions with several potential strategic partners for other territories for its CLBP product. We assume that a $1bn US deal for CLBP is inked in FY21 and assume a US$100m upfront, which we risk adjust by 44% in our forecasts.
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