I did a post...

I did a post here:

https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/msb-trading-2021-paradigm-shift.5840628/?post_id=55234110&embed=1

That ballparked my estimates at US$20b-60b based on previous acquisitions in the CAR-T/iPSC space, with the most likely offers being in the $25-40b territory. This would be equivalent to a price per share of A$51.75 - A$82.80. The people who are saying they wouldn't take that are being a little crazy zealous - a 30x - 48x multiplier on investment effectively overnight is never something you turn down. Think about it this way, you get acquired for A$50 per share, the difference between 50 and 100 is just a measly 2x. If you want to double your money so much reinvest it into other growth stocks.

I first saw the Novartis sell-down as a funny prospect to dream about, but I thought about it some more.

What reasons would Novartis have to liquidate assets in Roche to get cash, it's not like Roche is performing poorly. 20b is far more than what is required for any internal investment or scaling, and it is extremely excessive for regulatory or legal costs and I really really doubt Novartis just wants to float 20b cash as security. I have become increasingly confident that they plan to shopping. So the question is, who is on the shopping list?

It's entirely possible there are some other obscure medium-sized companies that have passed phase III clinical development with candidates knocking on the door of regulatory approval in the states... but how many of them have an IP portfolio of 1100 patents on a breakthrough platform with four indications (three of them blockbuster) in the final stages of development/commercialisation, that they have already expressed an interest in by means of a >2b partnership? Keep in mind that >$2b partnership was signed prior to CLBP and CHF results and after a CRL for GvHD... things have been pretty positive since then.

Not a bad shout if you ask me, if not a speculative one.

Gang Gang