You are correct about NVS (or any other potential licensing partner). That could add real and sustained additional value to the SP...because it brings actual money into the company and is basically a "tick of approval" from a Big Pharma partner that the products work.
If/when NVS ponies up, hopefully, MSB uses proceeds from any upfront payments to pay down/off the loan facilities and take away one of the shorters' perennial cries: "There is a going-concern issue, that loan is coming due and MSB cannot pay it, company will be shuttered in six months!" Until it's paid off or refinanced, we don't have anything to DEFINITIVELY disprove that claim.
Keep in mind, too, that because NVS (who has taken its sweet time about reviewing the ARDS results...really crappy "partner" in my eyes up till now, anyways) and any other potential partner are only mere possibilities, they don't add anything to the business case that makes a growth in SP sustainable (at least not to the market). Bloody NVS is also giving the shorters a free kick: "Novartis is out, if the stuff worked, they would have publicly committed by now!" We know that's most likely B.S., but we don't have anything to DEFINITIVELY disprove the claim. NVS is actually the more the shorters' friend right now than ours.
As to OTAT? Yes, I am sure it will be helpful (depending on what MSB can actually say about it, how clear the language from the FDA is, etc.). But remember: we got a 9-1 ODAC vote and STILL the FDA torpedoed us at the finish line (and I truly believe the FDA lied to MSB about their view on the Rem-L application and backstabbed us at the last minute for "reasons"). So again, OTAT, no matter how favourable, will NOT be viewed by the market as a guarantee of an approval. As well, the shorters will be able to say: "MSB is overstating what OTAT said!" or "FDA will pull the rug out on MSB at the last minute just like ODAC, just watch!" And again, we won't have anything to DEFINITIVELY disprove their claims.
I know this all sounds very negative, but to me, it's the height of pragmatism. This is just me mentally preparing myself for potential (perhaps inevitable) disappointment when the next big thing for MSB...turns out to not be that big of a thing.
Show me the MONEY from partnerships and/or approvals! Until then, I am strapped into my rollercoaster seat, and trying to enjoy the crazy MSB ride...
Expand
(20min delay)