I always hate this question. "What do the shorters know, and how do they know it?!"
They have no inside knowledge at all. They don't even know that much about MSB and its products.
Instead, they are just playing the odds. It's been a long road for MSB to get here, where the company is literally making discoveries with every trial as they go along, and where outcomes in those trials have NOT resulted in the expected outcomes...but have nevertheless meaningfully advanced the science, and shown that in spite of poor selection of primary endpoints (frustrating, but understandable), there are still incredible proven benefits from MSB's products.
So rather than blindly opine about "leaks" or conspiracy theories, anyone wondering how the shorters keep winning should ask themselves the following questions:
- How would the shorters have "known" during the COVID ARDS trial that over 65s were going to swamp the patient pool, and, being harder to treat, would skew the results with significantly higher levels of mortality than the under 65s, ending the trial--even though results in the under 65s were AMAZING?
- How would the shorters have "known" during the CHF trial that the INCREDIBLE reductions in mortality would NOT result in a concomitant reduction in the length of hospital stays?
- How would the shorters have "known" that during the ODAC committee meeting, and in spite of the FDA making clear that a single-arm trial would be acceptable during all prior negotiations and discussions with MSB, that the FDA would instead do a 180, wildly attacking MSB's trial design while trying to convince the panel that Rem-L was NOT proven to be efficacious?
- How would the shorters have "known" that the FDA would reverse a 9-1 ODAC decision in Rem-L's favour?
Shorters don't know ANYTHING about MSB or its trials.
I have said it before - the shorters, being creatures of habit, and having made money time and again on MSB's long, long run of bad luck/bad trial design/steep and ongoing learning curve for what their products actually do (where MOA is still at best hypothetical), are doing what they ALWAYS HAVE DONE - betting against MSB succeeding.
That's because the know the MSB Pattern (it's really the only thing they know about MSB). We longs know it all too well:
Good news, share price goes up...but it's not a breakthrough or an approval, so no revenue...and that, plus shorters trashing the stock, drive the SP back down. Wash, rinse, repeat. The shorters know it so well they set their watches by it. Frankly, I am surprised that anyone on this board expresses surprise when it happens after any price sensitive announcement.
The shorters also work to increase their odds of success by sowing doubt, including by coming on this board to denigrate and downramp, briefing certain newspaper columnists, etc., etc., etc. Easy to do, when posters here give their arguments more credit than they deserve and waste their time trying to disprove their lies.
Given that, anyone trying to read brilliance, insider knowledge or superior intel into the shorters' strategy are entirely fooling themselves.
The shorters are going to win, and win, and win...right until they lose. They are like gambling addicts, putting another gold coin in the pokie machine. BUT:
- If OTAT comes back in MSB's favour, and...
- If MSB resubmits its BLA and it gets approved, and...
- If Novartis closes the deal and pays MSB the up-front cash, and...
- If Novartis agrees to fund a global Phase III ARDS trial, and...
- If Grunenthal and MSB announce their Phase III US/EU trial for CLBP...and, and, and...
What then?
After each of those events, you can be certain that the scumbags on this board (you turds all know who you are), Tom Richardson, etc., parties that clearly have ulterior motives, will be crowing loudly about why these announcements do NOT actually mean what you think they mean...that doom and gloom are right around the corner...SI is a conman...the FDA will never approve a stem cell product...a capital raise will be required...you all know the shtick.
In response, some lily-livered holders will sell out with a tiny bit of profit, or worse yet, a small loss, convinced that the bottom is going to fall out again, just glad to be off the MSB rollercoaster.
But if all those things do indeed happen, the shorters are going to find that moving the SP downward in the face of approvals, partnership money, revenue, awards, massive press coverage, etc., is going to be harder and harder and harder.
Bye, bye, old MSB Pattern. Hello, MSB Pattern v2.0. And bye bye, shorters.
Sorry for the long rant, but please stop giving the shorters, and their minions that downramp on this board, any more credit than they and their B.S. deserve.
(20min delay)