My two bob's worth on a couple of difficult questions:
1. When will aGvHD come out?
MSB have to wait for the scientific analysis to be done, however they also have a bit of leeway to release at a scientific conference, or just in front of an earnings result.
Remember the aGvHD 100-day figures came out when the Melbourne global stem cells conference was starting.
The Tasly approval from Chinese authorities came out the day before the latest quarterly conference call.
Possibly a coincidence as medical conferences are happening all the time. They would probably like to stagger aGvHD with the 1-year heart readout at end Sep/early Oct.
So, I'd think aGvHD will come out any day now up til around 20 Sep (and possibly just in front of a conference).
Heart 1-year readout likely first week of Oct when there are a few conferences in the US.
This gives people a reason to go and listen to SI and may even spark interest for a partnering deal with someone in the audience!
2. Short position - apparent big drop
- big drop in net shorts reported last Wednesday - obviously nearly 6m shorts weren't covered that day, so this highlights the shortcomings of voluntary reporting.
It may be an accumulation of shorting over many days that were all reported in one go. It may be a mistake. It may be stock borrowed but not yet shorted being returned to the lender because it is too expensive to borrow (at 18% interest) or maybe the lender recalled the stock which had been lent not yet shorted. Maybe someone who was shorting in Australia covered part of the position and reshorted at higher prices in the US market. Maybe a short seller actually did buy quite a lot of stock back, but certainly not that many on that day.
It may be a combination of all those things- but this has occasionally happened in the past and then reversed quickly, implying there was some sort of error in the initial reporting.
Whatever it is, the pressure remains on the shorts and the line of least resistance is up.
3. Don't get distracted
The shorts are getting desperate and make all sorts of stupid comments to try to distract and discomfort you from holding a position. This can make you feel like it is a relief to sell any short term rally to get out and stop the constant tension and feeling that something bad is about to happen.
The simple fact is that MSB is up nearly 50% from the lows of earlier this year and the pressure is therefore on the shorts, not the longs. They will even be under threat of losing their jobs. Some of them will never admit they have been wrong, so it is a waste of effort arguing with them (the guy who argued that Sydney house prices would fall 40% is still arguing he will be right - but prices have doubled in the meantime!).
Again, don't get drawn into these arguments, it chips away your valuable resolve to stay long - it becomes very wearing and exhausting and you end up just wanting to sell and finish with the whole thing. This is their aim and they actually enjoy baiting people into arguing and answering off the point questions or comments (witness the recent debate on these threads as to who was a "bonehead" - why did it matter? It didn't!).
It is quite obvious if someone doesn't own stock but comments consistently on a small cap stock that they must be short (or the hedge fund they work for is short). Otherwise their behaviour is psychopathic. Either way, you are getting led down the rabbit hole if you engage and you will end up being poorer for the experience.
As the price rises, those shorts who are convinced that they are more intelligent than everyone else will continue to argue against any announcement the company makes and will become even more entrenched in their opposition- they will never admit they were wrong, so don't expect to see an apology!
The Prof has delivered us an almost 50% rise since the Feb 2018 low - let's enjoy it!
Stay coool
MSB Price at posting:
$1.71 Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
(20min delay)