MSB 4.66% $1.46 mesoblast limited

So difficult to think as a contrarian when we are experiencing...

  1. 442 Posts.
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    So difficult to think as a contrarian when we are experiencing such a broad based market sell off. Biotech is a category, where the only valuation for a stock is what the next person is prepared to pay for it. In this environment with no dividend yield or cash flow support, the shorters have a picnic. Global pharma decided, many years back,to outsource a large part of their early stage R&D programmes to smaller companies because of how the market punishes share prices in a “risk off” environment compared to those with predictable cash flow. 

    I can recall individual investors incredulity when manyshare prices fell below cash on the balance sheet in the last great tech crash. I am sure MSB is a little bloated in relation to management remuneration and costs but this is small beer compared to the costs of undergoing two major clinical trials simultaneously. The only thing management can do right now is execute their clinical programmes and ensure the balance sheet is secure to fund them. They have no control of the market. Sad to say that in a bear market, margin calls will require many investors to sell high margin holdings first to avoid being “stopped out” with their other holdings. MSB is particularly vulnerable because it has relatively few institutional shareholders who will step in when others are losing their heads. 

    In times like this you should review your investment case for all your holdings. One of the main  negatives for the biotech sector appears to be Governments being prepared to squeeze on prices they are prepared to pay for individual treatments. I note that Alofisel a little while back ,was initially rejected for use by NICE ( which approves drugs purchased  by the NHS in the UK after a harsh cost benefit analysis). The sector is also plagued by regulatory and compliance risks of achieving FDA approvals... but I would like to think that saving a child suffering from aGVHD or dealing with chronic heart failure would be very much a priority for any society...so our investment case remains very sound in my view.The truth is,once a treatment is FDA approved for an orphan indication, we should be handsomely rewarded for our patience. I am off to find my hard hat. Good luck to all.


 
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