The announcement of the placement to NovaQuest today is bang in line with the $1.60 price we calculated at the time of the original announcement.
It's worth repeating that Nova was originally set up by Quintiles to fund promising technologies and that Quintiles is the company running the aGVHD trial for MSB.
Nova is stocked with PhD's who can pick and choose between numerous promising companies in this space.
Nova is prepared to lend money to MSB subordinated to Hercules and the Hercules debt doesn't require any repayments of capital for 4 years. Nova knows MSB is a company burning cash at the rate of a bit over $US20m per qtr (probably around $22m per qtr allowing for cash interest payments on the new debt) - yet Nova is confident enough in the technology to lend medium term subordinated debt, which doesn't even require cash interest payments to start until the FDA approves their product and sales start for aGVHD in the US.
Knowing all that, Nova thinks it's worth paying $1.60 for shares in MSB, knowing it was a 5% premium to the prevailing share price. It was happy to escrow these shares until July 10 2019.
This is a massive vote of confidence from someone who knows what they're doing.
The share price hasn't yet breached the important $1.60 level in Australia, but I can see at least one major knowledgeable shareholder who's prepared to bet it'll happen!
A bit more patience required for long term holders - with massive upside coming if the US analyst forecasts are correct
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