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Hi sk - great analysis. I expect that the mass media pick will...

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couchcushion

24 Posts.

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25/09/17

20:31

Post #: 27448047
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Originally posted by SugarKing ↑

I was going through some old posts and thought I'd add a few more thoughts with only 6 days until you can download the app. I thought that I would run some numbers to help me better understand how much revenue we could generate from the app. Monetisation begins day one with in-app purchases and downloads could be off the charts with the “burst” marketing campaign that Dion calls it in the video released last week.

I combined numbers we know, with average numbers achieved by game apps. These average numbers can be found on google.

The average cost per install for an app is the marketing spend used to procure a download. The numbers seem to vary from what I can find, but basically, I was comfortable using a dollar per install. This means we should procure 5.7M installs because our marketing budget is $5.7M. Assuming that 75% of installs become a monthly average user (MAU), this leaves us with 4.3M MAU. I read that a “pretty good app” has a DAU/MAU ratio of 20 – 30%. Assuming 25%, we would have 1.06M DAU.

Then, you see that the average revenue per DAU for a casual game app is about US$0.12, or about $0.15 in Aussie dollars. Simple maths, and you can see how profitable some of these games are.

In our case, if we get 1m DAU, that’s 1M DAU x $0.15 revenue per DAU per day x 365 days equals $54,750,000 in revenue for the year. It’s the audience and how long that they spend on the app per day is what drives value – just like on TV.

I know this seems huge but this is obviously what the company is working towards. The research update on the MSMCI website put out last month has a price target of $3.89 so obviously they’re on a similar track.

Personally, I think that we will achieve far bigger downloads than this because our app is far better than average IMO so if we achieve 2m DAU, the revenue number doubles. The stock price would be astronomical and we’d surely have to be interesting to bigger companies from Silicon Valley.

gltah

sk.

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Hi sk - great analysis. I expect that the mass media pick will be massive once this is launched. Less than a week now until we can download the app. Sellers this week may be seeing their shrinks next week. Tick tock.

MSM Price at posting: 21.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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