MST Access 39c risked - $1.62 unrisked, page-75

Two fundamentals define market valuation: economics and scale. The current focus is to prove economics, later on scale. Economics soon to be confirmed after 3D, drill, and phase 1/2 FID. Chart now nearing inflection point as economics are de-risked (2024).

Scale is more the regional potential. Geological framework supports large resource potential as area combines all key trap elements. Three elements define any field: trap, source, and reservoir and in this case, they could work together to provide a very large resource size.

· Trap: not just structural so accumulation can cover a much greater area. Incremental trap components are bounding faults and possible remote lateral reservoir changes. 3D can map structure accurately.

· Reservoir: dolomite expected to have consistent porosity and permeability allowing a large connected resource volume. 3D will show reservoir extent with a seismic signature for porous dolomite reservoir.

· Charge: large volumes of wet gas and oil source (large source basin). Potential early oil migration and trap displaced by later gas generation (the oil leg theory). Large implied column. 3D can show potential contacts (e.g., G/W or G/O) from flat spots and amplitude changes (especially if observed events correspond to common structural contours).

Scale potential is expressed as P90 P50 P10 but unfortunately not disclosed yet. A simple estimate of gross recoverable resource (for the ENTIRE play) based on ∑prospect size would be: P90 2 TCFE / P10 10 TCFE which gives you P50 6 TCFE.

So it’s really the regional P10 number that we need to see but that is probably a 2025 event. Then we can work out a P50 NAV (net and risked). As the scale potential is defined the TCFE’s will start to pile up and that’s when the chart goes exponential

https://petrowiki.spe.org/Uncertainty_range_in_production_forecasting