LYC lynas rare earths limited

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$9.99

MT Kellett ???, page-2

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27/10/16

06:57

Post #: 20152712
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Originally posted by ContraryJ ↑

First I have been googling Mt Kellett as well as looking at US SEC filings and since they joined forces with Fortress, Fortress as well. The following is pure speculation and I post it hoping someone has more information than me.
Mt Kellett is a private hedge fund with $6 to $7 B in assets. They have individual funds available to very sophisticated buyers as classified by US SEC. ( Much Higher than Me). Because of this I assume that all the Lynas Warrants are held in one of the hedge funds and the managers have full control. There investors then have shares of the fund. Unclear if there is just Lynas in the fund or many different assets. I would say Lynas is one of several assets in fund, $ value of bounds is just not big enough to warrant its own fund. I do not know. I can find no record of Bounds being distributed to individuals. It is impossible to know what you missed.

Does anyone have more info and if so where did it come from?

Next shares available to MT K up till Sept. 2018
Current shares exercisable with bound money is US$225 / Exchange rate 0.76 is AU $ 296M at $ 0.10
2.96B shares at 0.10
0.349B shares at 0.05
0.296B shares at 0.038
3.5B shares total

I believe all these will be exercised and sold when the price is good for Mt K. They can carry these as an asset at current market price till sold, they are not interested in being a stock holder. The bounds will be carried at a $1.00 until price is over 0.10. I also believe they MAY exercise any time their gain is greater than 10% PA (Pure Guess) First deal Jan 2012. 2017 61% gain needed, 2018 77%.
So a Price 0.145 would give them a profit of $191M if they exercised and sold all shares. This would give them a profit of 64% which would make them happy in 2017. In 2018 They would be looking for a profit of 77% or AU$231M A SP of $ 0.16 would create this profit if all 3.5 B shares were exercised and sold. Not saying they would sell at these prices. If they think prices are going higher they may hold till September of 2018. If there was a run on fund they may have to sell lower than these prices. Just want to know where activity MAY happen.

It should be noted that current Equity is 0.02 / SH. Exercising either of the warrants today would increase SH Equity and be a very nice plus for free cash and reduction of JARE Debt. So though there would be dilution, the share price should go up. I do not think they would do this!!!
Also if all warrants and the stock for bounds was exercised this would pay JARE AU$ 243M. So with this deal as long as price is over 0.10 in 2018 JARE nearly Paid off as well as Mt K being gone.

This is all a positive for starting to buy Lynas but I have allot to do before I do. Please point out errors.

PS I forgot conversion rate in one place basic argument still holds so I am not going to fix it.

Expand

Warrants are like options. It would add about 17m in to the bank. But would give Mt K about 10% of the company.

Convertable bonds are like options to buy. If they convert, all it would do is get rid of obligation to pay back bondholders. The full JARE debt would still be outstanding.

LYC Price at posting: 6.6¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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Last $9.99		Change 0.270(2.78%)		Mkt cap ! $9.345B

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
$9.75	$10.15	$9.71	$68.77M	6.987M

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No.	Vol.	Price($)
1	900	$9.97

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Price($)	Vol.	No.
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No.	Vol.	Price($)
1	900	9.970
2	9000	9.950
2	8000	9.940
3	7311	9.920
4	5897	9.900

Price($)	Vol.	No.
10.000	12984	5
10.020	29794	1
10.030	2311	2
10.040	997	1
10.050	24167	9

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MT Kellett ???, page-2

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