LYC 2.37% $7.78 lynas rare earths limited

mt welds twin sister, page-144

  1. 18,529 Posts.
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    Hi Tonio

    I was keen to get my letter off to the Independent Board of Directors, addressed individually, and to Nicholas Curtis and I have kept a copy which eventually will go to Ian McIlwraith (journalist at the S.M.H.), if I don't get a satisfactory reply (I stipulated 'no form letter') and to which I will add calculations including a transcript or 'circumscript' of your estimates, with your permission.

    I came up with a figure of around 40-50 billion less infrastructure and production costs (halved the figure), but I didn't use the detailed report you've used, just a table from a Lynas presentation in 2007 where they give an average price of $20/kg, I then multiplied my figure by 5, assuming a basket price of $100. I didn't worry about the other metals (which is really the 'reason' they want to on-sell, they don't fit Lynas profile! haha).

    In the end my comment re value of in-ground metals/chemicals was neutral just quoting what I've come up with and that other people had calculated even higher figures, but stating that nothing but a thorough BFS would give us that figure - or a good and neutral valuer.

    My main argument in the letter is that the sale price is too cheap and that a second bidder be found if the sale is absolutely necessary. I also suggested they release an announcement re Malaysian environmental protests and Sojitz - where I suggested they should have written a condolence letter on the huge disasters befalling the Japanese people. Surely there are some secretaries around who could look after those things - not impressed.

    Also I simply quoted an excerpt from Ian McIlwraith's article about Riverdale having been Nicholas Curtis company just one week before their name change and their 'valuation' of Swan and Crown

    Sleepless nights - yes, I had one of them, but now feel it was an overreaction and I have made the same mistake I made during the GFC; falling in love with a stock, a sector, loved, hung in almost to the end, and lost - so caution is warranted. It is important to watch the international press in regard to REE - and this thread is wonderful in this regard.

    I now have a 'wait and see' attitude - and I'll await further information, so far I am still in the 'NO' camp.

    My concern now is that by writing to them we might achieve both a negative and positive outcome: negative because they'll know exactly which way the wind is blowing and can prepare to deal with this; and positive, because they'll realise that it is not just a storm in a teacup and that maybe their proposal won't go through in its present form - fingers crossed it's the latter one!

    I would vote "YES" if they got a much higher price for that resource, but also know that won't happen.

    Cheers

    Taurisk


 
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