Those who have been here a while may remember me, I've held for a long time and I used to post here a lot however I took a long break as the posts on here became repetitive pushing a certain dialogue rather than exchanging any research or information. I just had a quick look and the same people are still saying the same things, so I'm glad I haven't missed much.
Anyway I figured I would offer an alternative view of where the company is at just so people aren't steamrolled into a certain way of thinking like the current posts do.
So firstly, I will openly admit I was very wrong. Some may remember my key metric was comparing MTC to its peers and explaining why it was so undervalued compared to all of them. I knew that every company in the battery minerals sector had a lot of future value already priced in, but very brashly assumed that this was sustainable all the way into the future despite the delay as so many new battery factories take time to come online/expand. I feel like most of the posts on here, especially those which get removed for defamatory content, are from people who can't accept that they were wrong to buy in at the top of a bubble and find it easier to blame other people for the share price decline. I don't see anyone here mention how badly everyone else in the sector is doing. One of the most painful examples is AVZ, who have in the past year defined an absolutely monstrous 400MT at 1.66% Lithium deposit that is still being expanded, and what has the share price shown for this? A -90% loss over the last 12 months... There were no survivors in this sector, even the current successful producers are significantly down, so I'm not sure what people were expecting MTC management to do because nothing any other company has done this past year has prevented massive losses.
Anyway, where to from here? I think battery minerals are primed for a second coming, here's why.
I'll stick to numbers rather than belief and sentiment:
Now of course a lot of miners should benefit from this, but here's why I've been using the magic of averaging down to top up in MTC:
BCC, the Chinese chemicals producer did their due diligence and paid $1.8M for 10% of MTC, valuing it at $18M at a time when it had a negligible cash. The current share price, despite there only being a few thousand available here and there, suggests a fully diluted market cap of $2.4M. The current cash plus the receivable exploration refunds even after accounting for current quarter's expenses total over $2M. So anything I've been buying at these prices means I'm paying $400,000 for every single project MTC owns. Does this mean that the executives at BCC throwing $1.8M are more likely to be wrong (also those who committed millions to cap raises at 24c, 30c etc.), or whoever is selling $250 a day right now? Companies like BCC invest for fundamentals they know will pay off in the long run, whereas obviously those selling small parcels right now are more likely to be cashing out because they're impatient for their Disallowed.
To put this into perspective, NVA is currently listing its Thompson Bros. Lithium project alone for $18,000,000 for which some money has been committed already at this price. It has 6MT with a 3-7MT exploration target. While Cancet is less drilled, the current drill results have produced a 15-25MT exploration target for the initial area which doesn't include at all the massive expansions in land and prospective strike. I've made a lot of posts a long time ago illustrating the significance of MTC's intercepts versus other deposits in terms of the rare high grade and close to surface that makes mining much more profitable, as well as the size of the intercepts which indicates the potential size of the deposit so hopefully you've all seen those so I don't have to repeat it.
As MTC has expressed, it is looking for a sell down of its projects, and I believe conservatively any deal should value Cancet for at least $5-10M (such as by them spending $4M to earn 50% etc.). Those who have been watching the microcap space will have seen many recently have had their prices hammered by illiquidity, only to have an instant 100% day as soon as a takeover offer is expressed, suggesting illiquid stocks like MTC are very often incorrectly valued by investors compared to what other companies would actually pay. MTC is a glaringly obvious example, the $400,000 EV for such a massive amount of projects means there is a massive amount to be made on the way back up from buying at these levels. I believe any deal will quantify the value of these projects and result in a rerate where it'll be pretty easy to be deep in the green thanks to how averaging down brings average buy prices closer to the lower price paid rather than in the middle of the two prices paid.
I've also seen some downtrodden Cobalt miners see some pretty good price action on new acquisitions in different commodities, which is why MTC's expression of interest in new acquisitions is also a strong catalyst for making a lot of money from these levels.
Of course a common complaint is the lack of action but the alternative is to a)sell projects for fire sale prices, which any long term shareholder would hate or b)Raise capital at lower prices than the last raise which was done at 24c, which any long term shareholder would hate. The directors themselves hold most of the company and as such it's only natural they would favour avoiding dilution to maximise their own return.
Sure, they could sell everything for a fraction of what it cost and make the price shoot to 10c instantly, and everyone averaging down at these levels would make a tonne of quick money but the directors and long term holders would be looking to get back past 30c to be making some real money which is why patience makes more sense to me than springing into action right now imo.
Hope this at least gave people a different view than what every other thread does, at the end of the day we're all still learning no matter how much we've already been through.
(20min delay)