MTC's ~Disallowed $1 Research Note, page-25

Project level sell down will cause a divergence in Market Cap from the typical path of peers imo due to the lack of dilution/less SOI. Obviously nothing is free and the part ownership at project level will siphon off cashflow later on however given MTC has an obvious lack of popularity the sell down will be a show of faith and validation of value that will cause a lot of interest and price action imo. So I'll just use the prices

In my opinion Cancet has a fairly solid value and the short term variation is mostly dependant on Rusty Lake for which I believe there is astronomical potential. If the maiden drilling at Sirmac-Clapier, Kapiwak, Well-Lacourciere or Terre Des Montagnes achieves grades as high as Cancet's then I will hold much tighter. If multiple take off, or even eclipse Cancet you can imagine where this could go.

Something a lot of people don't seem to remember from the prospectus (Am I the only one who reads everything?) a long time ago is that Adina was purchased for a tiny fraction of any other Lithium project and had low relative prospectivity. The only reason it was drilled 2nd was its proximity to Cancet meant that demonstrating its potential through a quick drill would cheaply demonstrate the massive amount of value it can add to extend the LOM of Cancet's operations. Cancet development is much more valuable when you know that after its LOM (at a very random guess 20 years) it's still got more feed from Adina to keep it making money. In other words, those 4 other Lithium projects have a much higher probability of significantly longer intercepts at higher grades.

I spent a massive amount of time poring over historical reports and the more recent geological ones for Rusty Lake and the more recent ones too for that property and I believe it could really be the highest grade deposit on the ASX which means more than people immediately give credit for. A good example is COB which just got absolutely hammered down to 'only' a 80M MC after it's feasibility for its 0.8% Cobalt deposit. Having the foresight to consider the massive effects of grade on Opex before the feasibility studies come out is something people seem to miss, and it costs them. In the same way I expect to be waiting for economic studies before people realise MTC's value thanks to its shallow high grades in Lithium and Cobalt (Plus Silver/Nickel and even Copper/Gold)

So in conclusion assuming what I believe is a probable case of a small low tonnage high grade operation at Rusty Lake, Cancet being sold down to progress it and 1 or 2 other Lithium projects following suit I'm expecting just past $2 based on average peer comparison, adjusted with the grades and depths and their effects on profitability.


I consider this probable only because I've spent a lot of time studying the currently known geology and comparing it to many other companies (you're welcome, everyone). For example, this extends as far to the not-so-well-documented historic reports of a monstrously long vein at Rusty Lake, the massive production from tiny shafts where they couldn't even get themselves past hard rock and the fact it is completely virginal to any form of modern exploration or drilling. As Cobalt's town mayor put it, Silver/Cobalt discoveries used to be found by tripping over it.

Another example is MTC's Sirmac-Clapier which is right next to Sirmac which Nemaska sold to the company now known as Vision Lithium for over $6,000,000 of shares (interestingly their share price also doubled following acquisition) The amazing thing about this price is that the project was barely touched, but had a small amount of work ~25 years ago that started to prove up a deposit of !!!2.04%!!! grading.

I could talk for days about information like this that forms my personal conviction that MTC is a life changing opportunity to gain exposure to astronomical potential at a price that is hilariously unrepresentative of the true value.

A lot of people are slowed by the 'price is too cheap to be a good company' hesitation, however I know what microcap investors are like and I know many don't even do 1% of the research I do before buying or selling the $5000 parcels currently being offered. There is evidence every day of pricing based on lazy/misinformed investors, today's example was Sayona who re-released known information (that the project was downstream from the water source and that hydrogeologists have already confirmed that there is no chance of contamination) for a 40%/$30,000,000 gain. If investors can miss something that simple and make a $30,000,000 mistake in their personal valuation, imagine how much more they misprice geological potential.

Obviously even if I was the most reputable geologist in the world nothing is 100% certain, in the same way pocket Aces don't always win against a 2-7 but there's no way I wouldn't bet all in at the Ace+Ace level odds I've personally inferred from the geology.