Hi,
As you can see from Table 9 below, in 2012, CNJ/GSR had a "Maiden JORC 2012 Probable Ore Reserve" of 18.8 million tonnes at 0.54% nickel (the nickel is my main focus), which IMHO is not too shabby:
FYI: Table 9 can be found on page 26 of the CNJ announcement titled: "POSITIVE MT THIRSTY PFS TO PROVIDE ‘FIRST WORLD’
SECURITY OF COBALT SUPPLY which was released on 20.02.2020:
https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20200220/pdf/44f8ghy7nxt41t.pdfIn a nutshell, it appears that, based on the above info, that 10 years ago, it was already 100% clear that the MTJV not only contained a very large and highly nickel enriched deposit, but that this major body of ore was also very easily accessible i.e. the resource could be extracted using conventional shallow open pit mining techniques.
Moving along to where we stand today i.e. over 10 years later (!), it now appears that not very much deeper down and probably directly below this already JORC confirmed 18.8 million tonne nickel reserve, CNJ and GSR have also been sitting on a virtually untouched (!) and major PGE, Nickel, Copper, Gold and Rhodium resource. Indeed, right now, it appears that CNJ/GSR will be able to very soon be able to announce that they also have a "maiden" JORC reserve of PGE's, Nickel, Copper, Gold and Rhodium (based on the assay results from their current drilling efforts).
In a nutshell, and if I have got this right, not only are CNJ/GSR already sittiing on a 18.8 million tonnes reserve of Nickel .54%, the overall MTJV reserve looks highly likely that it is going to get a whole lot bigger, far more valuable, and with a whole host of additional and currently very fashionable metals to boot i.e. not only the nickel, but also PGE's, Nickel, Copper, Gold and Rhodium.
And, potentially, it might get even better i.e. I now see the MTJV operating initially as a "strip mine" i.e. as an art "precursor" to a huge open-pit mine. Normally with "strip mining", the surface material is merely waste material, commonly known as "overburden", which must be removed in order to be able to mine the valuable ore resource at significantly deeper levels. Normally this "overburden" is therefore totally unwanted material, however, at the MTJV, a major part of this "overburden" is already a very valuable resoource i.e. a "Maiden JORC 2012 Probable Ore Reserve" of 18.8 million tonnes at 0.54% nickel! Which means, that the MTJV can be far easily and far more quickly developed as a mine, and thus the overall return on investment (ROI) of the MTJV project will be significantly higher, and the mine life much longer (20 plus years?).
In this regard, the CNJ/GSR announcement i.e. "POSITIVE MT THIRSTY PFS TO PROVIDE ‘FIRST WORLD’SECURITY OF COBALT SUPPLY (which was released on 20.02.2020) is IMHO now completely out of date and thus no longer valid. However, this actually very good news i.e. the economic viability of the MTJV is will liklely to be far far better, a fact that I believe that most retail investors have not quite yet realised (but I am sure that GAL, IGO, and other major miners have!).
Before I continue, not only is a PFS about whether the development of a mine makes economic sense and thus warrants its construction, an important part of a PFS is about the cost of transportation of the ore from the deposit to the buyer. Normally, mineral deposits occur at considerable distance to the buyer and ports (even in industrial countries). This is why transportation costs are always a large part of the total costs and can reduce the overall value of the ore i.e. transportation costs can have a considerable impact on the value of the ore concentrate.
IMHO, this will not be the case at the MTJV, due to the fact that the MTJV is located only 16km north-west of Norseman and only 4km from the Coolgardie-Esperance Highway, as well as being in an infrastructure corridor that includes road, rail, gas, water, fibre optics etc., Therefore I believe that this will have an additional and very positive considerable impact on the value of the ore that is mined from the MTJV.
IMHO, this nearness of the MTJV to this aforementioned and already well established, fully functional and state of the art infrastructure, was vastly underestimated in the original PFS that was released in 2020 (in fairness, the significant cost benefits of this significant "infrastructure" bonus and its effect on the overall profitabilty of the MTJV are very difficult to quantify).
In addition, and another very positive factor for the economic viability of the MTJV project, will be the prices for PGE's, Nickel, Copper, Gold, Rhodiums and Cobalt, which are likely be very well supported over the next couple of decades (at the very least!).
Summing up, IMHO, CNJ and GSR (as well as GAL and IGO) are sitting on a proverbial gold mine. Not only this, I believe that they will have liitle trouble attracting buyers for their ore concentrate, i.e. there are already plenty of companies who a very interrested in securing a guaranteed and sustainable supply of nickel etc. for their electric vehicle batteries etc. out of Western Australia.
Finally, I have a question: has anybody here has done the sums on what 18.8 million tonnes of Nickel at .54% might currently be worth (at a current nickel price of US$22,500 a tonne).
Thanks and cheers!
(20min delay)