Breather?
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From a weekly perspective, MTM had another great week. It moved from 50.5 to 60.5, a gain of nearly 20%. Also reached a high of 73. .
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So what's happening? Since the big move from mid 20s, MTM has been going from strength to strength. There have been phases, but everything positive. And that pattern continued this week on share price. And also on fundamentals. With MEI agreement.
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Fundamental what is changing? Big thing - recognition. This is a play where its very difficult to quantify things - as I have said before, its not like drilling, and the drilling results tell the story. So lot of things on hope, but more importantly, in others recognising that there may be real deal out here. That got re-enforced this week. So positive narrative for MTM continues.
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Share price? It did reach 73 this week. Some may have thought it may have been a stretch. Outside of all moving averages etc (for those who follow charts). So a pullback, which based on my play, has been nothing unusual. Its doing that for sometime. So not fazed at share price at this stage, if it drops I may have a think.
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Personally, few weeks back I had written that I will try to get 1 bag more before a play. My first play in MTM was from high teens to mid 30s, got one bag. Then started buying, in early to mid 30s, hoping for another bag. My average was 36. But last week I thought it may have gone ahead. So sold half. Didn't work out well. This week sold the rest in early 70s. So didn't get 1 full bag, but 0.75% bag. Then I was waiting, till today. I was seeing if 59 holds, as one resident charter had mentioned that 59 is key level. It did hold. So I have picked up half today, most at 60 and some at 60.5. This is now my third innings. I am hoping its as fruitful as other 2. I know my win may be much smaller than many others who have held thru thick and thin, but we all have to do what we are comfortable with, including, expectation, risk/reward etc. MTM has been very good to me till now - 1.75bag. MTM has risen more that 25 times in recent times, so my win may look measly, but as I said, we have to be happy with we get, rather that what we could have. But I will play tight stop - 57/58 I may have a think.
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So what may happen next week? Overall its looking great. Any news will certainly help. Otherwise technicals may drive in short-term. Some feel that we are in that stage of technical of slightly taking control, and it may be right. But we don't want to drop big. One of the big reasons MTM has done so well is because it has been led by some big players. Very big players who knew what they were doing. We have to hope that their target is much higher. And they are there with us. And it has never dropped big, like over 20%. All signs at this stage pointing positive, but something to be aware of. Last few weeks MTM has been making new highs, lets hope the trend continues. All the best.
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