Testing the CR?.From a weekly perspective, MTM had a week which...

Testing the CR?
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From a weekly perspective, MTM had a week which was dedicated to fundamentals. So lost on share price, trading patterns, etc. Dropped from 60.5 last week to 57.
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So what's happening? There was a pattern in play, but with the announcement this week around CR, everything has ben reset. Unfortunately reset down. Which is understandable, to those watching for some time. A $50m CR at 55. Its massive. Last CR was 6 months back. $7.5m at 14.5c. MTM has done very well, not withstanding comments around short term drops. We have to look at a broader perspective.
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So what is good? A very strong CR of 50m. To be honest, very rarely I have seen such a strong resort to fill in the pockets. I feel, there may be, short term plays, but the long play happening from mid teens when I started playing, all indications at this stage that we have a number of more chapters. We have to learn from where we are moving, rather than short term pressures.
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So what is not good? Last week we reached 73. But finished the week at 60.5, around 15% drop. That means, some may have been in the know. The CR this week has put pressure on the share price, which is understandable. If it was a small raise, things may have been different, but we are talking $50m. A huge amount, for a company under 300m, and couple of months back, under 100m, when it played early 10s in early April.
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But by the way, what are those short term pressures?

• First - There are are still lot of unbelievers. Who still think MTM rise is fake. Not based on facts. Possibly they may have been thinking from teens
• Second - CR at 55c. It reached 73c before this CR. In that context, the CR is at nearly 30% discount. Lots of people have made money. We all know there is no guarantee. So some cashing it out. Which is fine.
• Third - Chartists. There seem to be many smart chartists who feel MTM price action is not sustainable. It has to go down, before it goes up. Its very difficult to predict what may happen next. So I will not dispute it, but I can imagine it being on the back of minds.

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Many feel that current attack on share price is based on CR. Lot of truth in that. Our CR shares will be issued next Thursday. So lot of attacks can continue. This is all I have got for those who want to pursue this line.
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What can be short term price bumps?

• First - Any announcement, very positive, will have a good impact
• Second - Even in last announcement, we have been talked about agreements, off takes etc. Anything will help
• Third - There are some big guys playing the stock. I have been writing that since it was teens, If you don't believe, read my posts, all along I have talked about a big play happening in the background. Even today, I didn't feel it has stopped/

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There is lot of argy-bargy going on, which just clogs the threads. I know there is someone who claims to write on charts and prices. When it was in late 40s, that gentleman said it will drop below 40s. When it was 50s, it will drop to mid 40s. And so on. Even today claiming, 55c. I have nothing against you. But try to be honest. Instead of being a chartist - admit you are playing for hope. I wish you well.
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Personally, fit really has been a journey. As I wrote last week, and several weeks back, my first foray was from mid teens to mid 30s. A one bag. Then I bought from early 30s, kept buying, average mid 30s, but had written I will sell if I double. Fortunately MTM reached early 70s. Last week I wrote, I got one more bag. But last week I also wrote that I am playing third innings. I bought last week at average around 60. This week things changed after CR. I was in 2 minds - wait for rise to happen above my buy price, or to average down in third innings. I was neutral/indecisive till yesterday. Today I decided I want to play. I picked up a decent amount today at 56.5. My 56 didn't get hit, because I put it late. I had multiple buys at 56.5 and I wasn't sure all we get hit. But when it did, I put the bet on 56. My average for this third innings is now close to 38. So why am I taking this risk? I have one simple answer. Unless some dramatic news comes that MTM is under the ground, the chances that it will make a new high above 73 within a month is very high. I will be surprised if it doesn't. I have taken a punt. I may be biased, so please dyor. Fortunately, my average now is 58, slight reduction.
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So what may happen next week? 2 things. One release of shares on Thursday. Second, technical play. What I saw today there were sellers. Genuine sellers. A lot was bought back, but sellers at one time were in control and look determined to push to 55. I was buying at 56.5 - I was thinking, should I wait for the seller to push, or should I go on. I went on. Till now, what I have seen, the seller is not done. So I will not be surprised to see a bit more fight next. I have a strong feeling, end of next week, we may finish higher than end of this week. Even though 50m shares coming on Thursday. Just a gut feel. Could be wrong. I am very positive, I can get it wrong, but feel odds of MTM getting it right is higher. All the best