MTM Weekly Report, page-59

Weekly Review REE Stocks - 18th Aug 2023

Here is the weekly review figures and charts that I do every week. It is useful only for those interested in trading or those who hold multiple shares and based on performance would like to keep re-balancing as we go. I do hold a number of REE stocks and like to trade. This is the reason I include a number of REE Stocks in my analysis.

Please note:
This is no reflection of all AU REE stocks as I have only included those that I am interested. In my list are shares that I hold, held before or planning to buy in near future. Since this is my list, I may have missed some good stocks. The averages are simple averages and not weighted averages. So the average don't reflect AU REE average. This is just for my tracking and analysis.
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Please note that all my analysis are from a trading perspective looking at short-term view.
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This list contains 26 REE related stocks and no new additions this week.
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How are we going in 2023 - General Markets-

• SP 500 after making a few 52 week highs and crossing 4600, first major pullback which many expected and I have been writing including last week in play
• SP 500 has lost just over 4.5% from its high, the downtrend from that high is into fourth week
• Upside - another retest of 4600 before getting to 4800 all time high
• Down side - 4300/4350 on SP 500 now forms a big level now if markets goes down further. This week on Friday we touched 4335 - so the number I have been talking about has already been placed once
• Bullish context is that this is a pullback in an uptrend and we will reverse before dropping less than 10% from 4600, first test 6% at 4300
• Market depth was improving with small caps, but it has now again got stalled - so risk on assets/explorers again not looking good
• VIX is now playing around 18 - so in neutral zone, though below 20 is still good for stocks, but lost 15 level it held for long time
• Fear and Greed indicator is at 45, down from 82 of recent times, from Extreme Greed to Neutral now, and good chance it will in Fear next week. As many expected and I also wrote a number around early 80s is usually when markets tops - this indicator also closely playing out as previously - many use this as guideline for tops and bottoms, so look for Fear or Extreme Fear as indicator of reversal for upside
• Bitcoin has finally capitulated this week. After trying to hold 30k play for some time, now its around 26k - very big drop this week, losing 28k support and danger of 25k losing and moving towards 24k. So finally Bitcoin is going in tandem with stocks, which is a long term trend of how these two go
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What will happen next week - General Markets:

• US markets had a flat day with resource stocks neutral. Li stocks could open flat while U stocks slightly higher
• SP 500 now in real test of pullback. As long as 4300/4350 hold, we should be good. Anything below, drops could be un predictable. 4300 is very key, else 4230 could come in play
• Some indicators of oversold happening, so a small bounce could be there - key for a bull trend to resume is to get over 4420.
• This week NVIDIA earnings on Wed after market, its a big stock, could provide some direction to market
• Powell to speak on Friday - Jackson Hole meet from Wed to Fri - this can also provide direction
• Some signs in crack of economy - Banks, Housing in US as well as China is suddenly gripped fears in minds of many
• The best we can hope is increase in breath. Lot of resource stocks not doing well. Junior explorers not doing well. The real gain by most will be made when this gain spreads - we wait

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Personally: Last week I said I have been moving a lot of my stocks into U sector, but doing it in tranches. Last week I had said I have bought 25% of what I wanted to buy in U stocks. This week I added more and am around 40% of what I want to buy. I will buy in tranches, to see if prices hold or move up before buying more. Li sector on average is going thru the worst phase in last 4 weeks. I had been getting out from most of my trading during this time. Things will change, but we need to see a reversal, unfortunately for now lot of stocks at 52 week low or close to it. This is just my thinking, I could be wrong in my assessment of both U and Li sector, so please dyor.
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Stock/Sector specific Info:

• MTM lost it this week, finishing at 6 from 6.6 last week, making a 52 week low at 5.6. Also very low volumes, so nothing much to glean from price action.
• MTM does not look to be in a good state. I had exited most of my positions long time back as I wrote in mid teens, have got out of little I had recently
• The REE sectors stocks I track is up 15% across 26 stocks for the year,
• This week across 26 stocks there was loss of 5%, last week 4% loss - so not very good on the back of general markets retreating.
• The trend is clear - stocks doing well are doing better but other stocks are not able to catch up - a cue for people where to put their money
• But overall REE sector is not doing well, only few stocks do well. Those more advanced, facing the tough realities of moving from develop to production, not so good - and this an indicator sector is not doing well
• MTM is now in very uncertain state. Technicals can do a small bounce, but unless Pomme gives something, outlook is not good. Lets hope something good happens there.
• Any announcement can have an effect of sp - both up and down
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Here is the Figures for the Week:
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