Hi
@Homer,
When I reread my posts, I realised they weren't clear that the valuation analysis related only to the Phase 1 Resource, i.e., it didn't take into account the wider potential in the JV, the rest of MOD's Botswana tenements outside the JV, or the Sams Creek project. The valuation analysis also started with a guesstimate resource figure (all we have to go on at the moment), but ended with a specific value in fractions of cents, which perhaps implied greater accuracy in the analysis than I intended! Unfortunately there is no way to edit posts, so I asked that they were taken down. Then before I had a chance to redo them, MTR's broker note came out anyway, and I figured we'd have the real JORC number soon enough rather than using a "best guess" estimate
The valuations themselves for the Phase 1 area I thought were probably a reasonable shout (with the riders above) for a minimum of what we might see: ~10c by feasibility stage and ~20c by production (at full dilution, ie assuming all warrants/options exercised). The MTR broker note using a different valuation method (a triple risked discounted model) also gave MOD's share of T3 a current valuation of ~10c (again ignoring potential elsewhere/Sams Creek).
In reality the actual SP in 1-2 years time could be much higher than those valuations suggest - what will really move the SP in my opinion is if/when they start to prove up the other targets - they are examining several targets that appear to have the potential to be as good or better than what they have found at T3. Then we could potentially start to see multiples of those valuations... But it's a bit too early to get carried away just yet!
It's still early days but MOD clearly have a vast swathe of highly prospective ground to explore - you only have to look at what Cupric has found to date to begin to see the potential for further discoveries across MOD's tenements:
- Cupric Zone 5 = 100.3 Mt @1.95% Cu + 20 g/t Ag
- Cupric Banana Zone = 191 Mt @ 0.6% Cu + 11g/t Ag
- Cupric Boseto = 177 Mt @ 1.3% Cu
