I think your numbers are incorrect. On your numbers:
Total approvals 38/61 ie 62%.
If ODAC approves, FDA approval is a near certainty. (30/30)
If ODAC does not approve, then 23% (not 11.5%) chance of FDA approval (7/30).
But these numbers don't tell us much because they include a bunch of "me too" drugs of marginal cliniical significance/effect and/or for which demand is already met by existing products.
See also how they have excluded meetings of the "Pediatric Oncology Subcommittee". I'd be more interested in its approval numbers especially for a treatment for an unmet need with an an excellent safety profile that had been granted priority review.
Cheers.
I think your numbers are incorrect. On your numbers:Total...
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