I don't get your calculation.
61 in total, 30 approved.
ODAC approves ~50% of application.
Of those 50% rejected, FDA approved 7 out of 30, which is 23%.
Thus, disregarding what ODAC decision is, the % of approval from FDA is quite high, this can be calculated by (30+7)/60 (ignore the tie break) = ~62%.
Scenario 1: ODAC approval - That's 30/60 = 50% of getting FDA approval.
Scenario 2: ODAC rejects - That's 7/60 = 12% of getting FDA approval
using your criteria.
Worst case scenario (100-62=38%) = $1
Best case scenario (62%) = $15-20
Fair value = $9.68
Your math needs some improvement.
Much more risk than reward on the coming Friday, page-85
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