trying to understand the rationale of the ever growing short...

trying to understand the rationale of the ever growing short position. Data ex ASIC and Yahoo used to build these charts:





A few observations
1. Average short sale price A$0.189 ~ A$0.196
2. Gross short exposure value ~A$8.1m compares with notional sales vale ~A$10.0m.
3. Recent spike in short volume met by Brazil Farming purchases so short selling not price determinant
4. Historical small number of large sell trades settled by large number of smaller buy trades
5. Limited free float available. Top 20 supposedly held 66% (per Annual report) so notionally only ~400m available to settle current ~52m units short sold
6. Traditional short volume ~ 11m units.
7. In terms of catalysts for change:
~ this analysis suggests a capital raise nearer to A$0.10 would be lucrative to shorters;
~ shorters have headroom so any takeover would need a full valuation

So what? My sense is that AMI will kick the Federation can down the road and so shorts will be wound back over time without any material price impacts. Brazil Farmer may have quelled any shorting enthusiasm.