"I expect that there will be a run on a European bank before...

"I expect that there will be a run on a European bank before long. I am not sure whether it will be Greek Italian or French."

The bank runs are happening, Peter. American cash funds who were chasing yield by investing in French banks (the biggest holders of Greek govt debt) have been taking their USD back home and ploughing into US treasuries. Hence the european banks are scrambling for USD to meet liabilities denominated in them, partly explaining gold's sell-off with reports of gold leasing in the market place (see my financial times link posted yesterday)