If you remove outside factors such as permitting, Talga have proven they can keep to schedule (EVA plant & ground works at current refinery are two examples). We'll likely get a revised timeline once all of these appeals are behind us. I suspect it'll probably be in line with your expectations of mid-2026.
As for the expansion, the recent letter to the government regarding the detailed plan shows the company are aiming for completion of the 104ktpa expansion by 2030:
"The mining company emphasizes that it is their ambition to extract 16.2 percent of the EU's demand for natural graphite by the year 2030."
Has Talga's current timeline for the expansion taken the CRMA into account? Streamlined permitting with 27 months for mining and 12 months for processing + easier access to finance are aspects to consider. I see no reason why the company wouldn't work on both stage 1 & 2 simultaneously, especially if they're backed by EU grants/finance under the CRMA.
Could the timeline improve? I think we'll have to wait and see just how much influence a strategic project nomination will have, but certainly having both stage 1 & 2 in production by 2030 is a realistic projection at this point.
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