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24/03/21

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Post #: 52015772

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Top 14 UBS battery metals forecasts after VW teardown

March 23, 2021
UBS upgraded its already rosy forecasts, which were only made last November, and the bank is now among the most bullish on EV penetration and battery raw material demand through 2030:
- Cobalt demand to expand by ~13% over the next decade from around 120ktpa to over 400ktpa by 2030 “partly offset by a migration to lower cobalt battery chemistries (LFP,NCA, NCM 811) with the average cobalt content on an EV falling by ~50% by 2030.”
- 2021 cobalt price forecast upped by 45% and 2022–25 forecasts by 14% to roughly $25/lb in line with the long-term average price since 1950 and the incentive price for cobalt mines to be built outside the DRC
- A deficit of ~170kt of cobalt by 2030. This equates to some 10 “large” cobalt mines in the DRC (producing 15-20ktpa like Katanga, Mutanda, Tenke, RTR or Mutoshi).

https://www.mining.com/top-14-ubs-battery-metals-forecasts-after-vw-teardown/

JRV Price at posting: 50.5¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held