medwar,I think your data and analysis may be a little...

medwar,

I think your data and analysis may be a little misleading. Where did you source the data? For example, there were at least four single trades today in KAL of 100k plus which are viewable within webiress course of sales. But your summary says there were none.

I have been experimenting with the same sort of analysis, using data extracted from webiress. I’ve made a few assumptions, and would be more than happy to be corrected on some of them by anyone.

When you look at the course of sales data in webiress, one line does not necessarily equal one trade (total). I know from experience that if I sell 100,000 shares, the trade could appear in the course of sales as 3 lines, ie to 3 different buyers.

21.5 86553 15:11:03
21.5 5000 15:11:03
21.5 8447 15:11:03 total = 100,000

Webiress logs the time down to the second. Ie 15:11:03. I make the assumption in my analysis that trades with the identical time, form one trade. This assumption is supported by viewing the trade numbers. They are not shown when you look at the course of sales data in webiress. However, when you copy the data from webiress into excel, for example, you can also see the trade numbers. And these support the assumption that identical times generally (but maybe not always) equal one complete trade on one side of the transaction(s).

This analysis can be misleading. If someone places an order to sell or buy 1 million shares, as happened today in KAL, it can take a very long time for the order to clear, forming a lot of smaller trades at different times. This is not obvious when looking at the course of sales data.

When I look at the data for 29 Nov and 4 Dec, combining trades with identical times, I make the following observations.

Thurs 29 Nov – Vol of 11,588,949, of which 38 were 100,000 plus
Today 4 Dec – Vol of 2,683,748 , of which 9 were 100,000 plus

If we divide todays volume by the volume on the 29th we get 4.32. If we multiply todays 100k plus trades by 9, we get 38.8.

I don’t mean to pick holes in your analysis. I am experimenting along the same lines and welcome any ideas or debate….