Lynas has a market cap of about 8 B. A book value of 1.2B. The...

Lynas has a market cap of about 8 B. A book value of 1.2B. The difference cannot be used to finance. It has to be written off over a fairly short time and is carried as good will on the books which is an asset. But is considered not liquid. So unless the stock holders are willing to take a much lower price for their shares 2~3 AUD then it is unlikely to be sold. Traditionally companies in trouble sell for half of book, Companies not in trouble and with a bright future which would include Lynas maybe 2X book. This is why I thought WF was a great offer. Remember book value includes all assets and cash is about half of Lynas book is cash. Why pay $ 6 to get one $ of cash in exchange. Right now Lynas has a book value per share of 1.39 and of that 0.75 is cash. So plant and equipment is wort 0.64B. H1 was a fantastic half but only added 157 M AUD to book value. even growing that by 50% says H@ will only add 235 H2 or 410M for year. Book os still under 2B and over a third of that is cash. So to talk about even AUD 10.00 just does not make sense especially during a recession. If someone was to pay 5X what plant and equipment was worth. than that would be 3.2B and pay 1.00 for the cash that would be 4B. divide that by .9 B shares that is still only AUD 4.44 a share.

So as you figure out how low SP might go in a recession keep some of this in mind. Very unlikely they will receive 5 x for assets during troubled times.MP has plans to open a full REE oxide plant in Dec of this year. They seem to be doing the right things to keep close to that schedule. Lets assume they slip 2 months for every month left that means late summer of 2023. The plan is for about twice the REE that Lynas produces. I find that credible competition. More importantly AL could no longer say Lynas is the biggest producer outside of China.

PS i am watching them carefully. Still own lots of MP puts but I might sell fairly soon if Q2 looks nearly as good as Q1. Like Lynas lots of pictures of construction. Unlike Lynas honest talk about what is going well and not so well. An update every Q of what the current time to complete is on all projects. If some thing goes bad they tell you why and what they will do to fix it.