Kiwoz - thanks for the input. I really dont think i have been idealistic in anyway. Ive tried to do these projections as realistic as possible. I stated at the end of my article that ive relied on company hitting their targets as stated in their releases.
My interest on debt were estimates based on company projections. They actually have lower interest amounts in their projections. Current Mortage rates are around 6.5% - and will be going lower in the future. Ide say my estimates are fairly accurate, i think we might be talking 1 or 2 million difference maximium per year possibly.
I think you are incorrect saying operating costs will rise 10% per annum. I have used the operating costs over life of mine as in the companies BFS. These are studies created in detail by professional contractors. MYG have mentioned informally that their projected costs for project have been ovetly cautious and they expect to deliver a fair margin under these costs.
I have not assumed all option will be exercised. I have assumed nearly 100% of 5 cents options will be ezercised - why wouldnt they - the SP is double that price right now.
As for the 2nd lot of options - ive stated a majority will exercised - if not, probably better long term for the company - less shares on issue. Company will not need the funds potentially anyway. Ive projected SP to be around 15cents as they get very near to production, excerside price of these options are 14 cents. Think a vast majority of these are held by Credit Suisse who are a firm believer in MYG, so ide say they will be exercising all their options.
Yes i have assumed gold prices in the range of $1650-$1800. Why wouldnt I - current prices are above $1600, ive made small increased per year usually. Most professional forward pricing for gold is much higher then current prices, i think ive been fairly realistic with assumed Gold prices. Many would believe any talk of gold anywhere near $1200 is insanity. But as with any gold producer, gold price is obviously a major influence.
As for MYG paying down their debt - my projected cash flow is the direction i would like to see MYG take - a direction of returning funds to shareholders whilst sacrificing paying off debt as fast as possible. There is zero doubt for mine that MYG will not have the least of trouble paying off $60million in debt. Its a tiny amount of debt when looking at other current potential explorers getting into production.
Glad to listen to any criticism of my projections.
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