my 2 cents worth

I suspended myself for 30 days over the weekend and wouldn't you know it a takover comes through.

Just a couple of thoughts.

I note the timing of the transaction (taking out the weekend) was exactly two years after the HGO deal went through. Recalling comments at the time 'the opportunity to purchase the company AT THIS TIME was not available' suggests to me either a gentlemen's agreement OR commercial arrangement was entered into giving ESG time to further develop the field.

LNGN seems now to have been the only way for ESG to develop a competing bid. They rolled the dice with allocating capital to upstream development when they should, in hindsight, have been proving up the resource base at break-neck speed to ensure any multiplier with STO was based on a bloated reserve base. I always argued LNGN only made sense if they already had a commerical partner lined up. Clearly that is not the case. No wonder Casey was so political in his last OB - might have been the last roll of the dice to get a competing bid up!

There is some suggestion of third-parties having entered into confidentiality agreements and access to ESG's data room in the scheme deed. I'd have thought if there was a competing bid it would have come first OR Directors would have rejected this proposal.

The time has come for the results of the LNGN Feasability Study, reserve upgrade, other commercial discussions, pilot flow data etc... to be released to the rest of us shareholders so we can make an informed decision as to whether the Director's recommendation is appropriate. Gee...a few more Independent Directors on the board would be welcome right about now.

Perhaps there is some scope for upside in the bid if the reserve upgrade comes through and it is as big as promised then I suspect that would be a 'material change' in the nature of the company and the bid price adjusted accordingly. FWIW I believe a valuation range between $1.15 - $1.55 is probably fair value post upgrade.

It will be interesting to watch things develop. I too emailed the company with my thoughts about the valuation. Haven't heard back, and probably won't going by past form unfortunately.

JT