Yes I agree with past posters that US revenue in 2011 is unlikely for 2011. Yet huge gains will be made in expanding overseas in the US in 2011.
Ben states he feels Plants from scratch will be made to service the whole US market. Currently the FE Study is with SSC. Alcoa deal still to be ANNed yet highly expected in early 2011. We WANT a great Alcoa deal on all 28 worldwide plants, has already started in Aussie now entering the US market- being x40 larger.
Have a think about it- there are factories available everywhere throughout the US that will meet most of the MHM needs. Therefore modifications will be the same as taking on a long lease and modifying (Cost Wise baring JV party paying) any factory compared to modifying existing Alu Plant. No Alu plant will be modified IMO. Yet the factories will be near the major plants to save on shipping. This is what the SSC FE Study is all about- finding the best way forward and finer details for our bottom line.
As the firm does not wish to get in the way of normal ALU operations I do not think any additions to these Alu plants will be made. Yet the most ecomonic options will be looked into to reprocess the over 500,000tpa slag in US to start. There is HUGE amounts of slag that will justify plants with capacities many times current forcasts IMO. Current forcast for 1st 2 US Plants being 525,000tpa. Thus why I have been so bullish on MHM all year long.
2011 will have SSC and Alcoa deals...PLUS I have heard many other ALU Coys have contacted MHM for talks. However Aussie and US will be our focus in 2011. If we get the 2 Plants in the US operational in 2011 that will be a pure bonus. Yet let us be realistic we will reach the 'alter' or money in bank in 2012 for my money. Personally a little more time to find the best economic solutions will be optimal for US expansion LT IMO. Thus the FE Study...
Other bonuses would be any more deals outside SSC and Alcoa in US plus a strategy forward to enter other markets as we takeover in the US market.
Are we getting ahead of ourselves in the US market- I think not... except those who expect major income from US Plants. As they are not built... what will propel the SP is the finer details of the deals and forcasts in the SSC, Alcoa and others in the US in 2011.
Aussie Plant 1 income is priced fairly for 60,000tpa currently at $1.20, as it finshed the year close to this mark. Yet we are only priced on Aussie income and not on any future earnings on US expansion. Overall what can we expect to grow in 2011.
IMO- it can easily match to 2010 results, as the difference in forward earnings in the US will be over x10. So 2011 could actually outperform 2010. Often with hugely expanding Coys many investors hate themselves for getting out for only a 50% profit. When in fact they could have been aboard on a life changing growth experience. Profit taking can kill your chances here. Yet human nature saids most will and thus the reason why we have sooo many investors will stories of 'What IF' (Incl. myself). What if... I did not take 200% profit on FMG...I would be over 25,000% UP... etc etc.
I feel this could be one of these stories that you look back on in 5 years and will be a 'What IF' story for many 1000s of investors who took profits on the way UP. Or were stop loss out on the up and downs.
Thus why I like to really review the fundamentals and potential forward earnings firstly before stop losing myself out on any slump. As the Herald Sun daytrader would have been stop lost out at his 98c, and made his 80% profit yet could miss out on x10, x20 or even the untimate dream of x100 of this in years to come. Thus this is the main thing I have against this strategy- some stocks you do need to know in detail and keep in contact with Management and have a semi love affair with IMO.
Many traders say you should NEVER fall in love with a stock- after far more than a decade I highly disagree now. As I have missed far more from profit taking than riding all the way to the provebial alter. Having an intimate knowledge of the Coy inside and out will allow you to have the insight that others do not.
Yet I agree if the love affair becomes one sided you need to let go... or your loved one is not getting to the alter as fast as you would like- let her go. Or your loved one proves to be untrustworthy let her go...
In terms of MHM it is not time to let her go... many exciting events to occur in our relationship with her in 2011. A whole world of expanding possibilities.
Happy New Year
Cheers JAY
MHM Price at posting:
$1.16 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
(20min delay)