my amatuer coffee analysis on linc.

No this is not a post on Linc latest coffee machine. Rather it is my recap on LNC's possibilities whilst I have a coffee or two. Any comments or interpretations positive or negative are welcome, but constructive please. Well except from you know who, he's (the one and only) on my ignore list and I couldn't read any reply anyway.

UCG - GCL

Linc asx announcement 29 June 12 was that GCL Projects (not GCL Poly as some still refer to) completed their technical due diligence.

http://au.finance.yahoo.com/news/linc-energy-limited-asx-lnc-021200082.html

and that both companies are progressing towards completing the last few negotiation points across the legal documentation. How big those points are or even what they are we don't know.

Meanwhile Linc has added that the current preferred site for the venture is in Inner Mongolia a large coal area owned by GCL.

This was further iterated in the UCG Association News on the 6 August 12 article

http://ucgassociation.org/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=304:linc-energy-close-to-reaching-chinese-ucg-deal&catid=38:current-news&Itemid=429

If one looks on page 7 of the last Quarterly Report, Technical Teams have been scoping out the project and preparing a work program.

In short, all present indications are that the deal is progressing. I continue to believe so until there is an announcement otherwise. We could see a 'deal signed' announcement any time onwards. It could be next week, it could be in a few months time.

When done it would not surprise me to see a 'PR Signing' or shaking of hands picture opportunity between PB and Mr Gongshan Zhu. It may pay watchers to keep an eye on his visits to Australia or PB's to China or Hong Kong, just a thought.

In any case the initial deal signing will see a welcome influx of cash flow to Linc.

UCG - Qld.

Linc is presently in discussions with the Qld Gov. in permitting LNC to expand it's multi year trials (Chinchilla) to a 40,000bpd plant. It is my assumption that this is one of the reasons BKK was brought in as their expertise and contacts may prove invaluable. The long standing EIS is still currently inactive. Approval in principal from the QLD government may see that change.

http://www.deedi.qld.gov.au/cg/linc-energy-underground-coal-gasification.html

UCG - Wyoming.
Still moving forward - trial period then 12 month shut down to assess environmental impact. We know there shouldn't be any negative impact, in any case results and probable approvals to continue late 2013.

UCG/Oil Umiat.
Multiple drilling including horizontal well this year. Probabilities look good, but one can't bank probabilities. Wait and see will be the investment trigger for this one.

UCG - Poland
Letter of Intent signed with State owned coal miner KHW for co-operation in UCG evaluation of commercial opportunities. Not worth the paper it's written on from an investment point of view, but further indication of Linc's growing projects and a foot in the door there. My assumption is that Poland will be watching China and Wyoming closely for cost/logistical/environmental impact etc. In the mean time assessments of where they can best utilize such may move forward.

ADANI Royalty

Change of upper management has seen Adani project move more rapidly forward. They are moving forward with mine EIS and detailed rail corridor and making strides in proposed Dudgeon Point Coal Port near Mackay Qld. As they continue and for each approval and star on material progress will only value add to Linc.

UCG Africa

Linc and Exxaro are creating business concepts for UCG. This is all basically still in fledgling status. However it is worth noting that a recently completed ExxonMobil report on energy and expectations that by 2040, Africa may be the next India/China. By 2025 it is expected that their energy needs will be much higher and based on Gas, Liquids and Coal Power generation. One can easily see that should UCG finally prove itself commercially, then Clean, cheaper energy here may prove more than fruitful. As I said early days yet.

Link to exxonMobil report - I suggest anyone in energy stocks give it a read

http://www.exxonmobil.com/Corporate/files/news_pub_eo.pdf

Teresa.
Linc continue to prosecute this asset with the view of a JV or sale.

As far as I can tell they are continuing with a 91 drill program to identify further JORC aimed at 11 years plus and are planning a EIS submission by Feb 2013 for a 2 stage mining plan to be running in 2015. Also apparently in discussion with Adani Dudgeon and Wiggins Island 2a Port access. As they progress, Teresa becomes more valuable. Whether they gain a JV or sale in the end, either way should prove quite profitable.

SA-Arckaringa Basin.
Basically on hold given lack of funds to prosecute at this stage. That's fine as UCG and Oil cash flow targets should remain priority. This looks an extensive promising asset, whether for sale to BHP or similar, or to develop internally. Just consider it a future value add or asset sale, but needs more work. Present condition in reality is static.

OIL CASH FLOW.

Linc answer to immediate cash flow problems. The fact is that Linc's share price is regarded as undervalued by this asset alone.

Octa Phillip Financial Group put out an Analyst Report on the 21 May 2012. They mention much of what I've said above and obviously go into more depth. I often regard Analyst reports of this nature as 'paid reports'. Whether that's true or not, I use that cynicism to research further on the subjects mentioned. They are often handy tools to add to ones DYOR projects for a basis of xternal/independent clarification.

http://www.lincenergy.com/data/analysts_reports/LNC-Analysts-Report-25.pdf

I won't go into it further, there are enough reports posted in LNC HC for those interested. Suffice to say it would appear that LNC are presently on track to delivering promised positive cash flow from oil production by end of FY13.

AT THE END OF THE DAY.
It's easy to think that Linc has more balls in the air than was seen in at the recent combined male gymnastic Olympic events.

Patience is hard, especially to the LT's who have been getting kicked in the teeth for a number of years. I can't say I blame them, especially with the horrific negative manipulation LNC's SP has undergone.

On the upside the waiting may be over before Xmas. Whilst the China deal is not crucial, IMO it will be a significant stepping stone, with Wyoming as a backup and possible Qld Gov. approval in principal (subject to future EIS I dare say) for 40K expansion also there.

With a fair bit of money out of the Market, and the Market virtually only responding to executed deals, it is a no brainer that LNC is cheap as chips, even if one was to just take that on it's OIL production/assets.

There are no guarantee's in the Market, but if one does there research, then one can evaluate the odds of probabilities of success. Personally for myself, I see Linc as an excellent chance once they bring down to ground that first ball. The value at present is ones faith or belief that chance will occur. Should it do so, then the present SP will be no more than a dream of 'only if I had'. Until then, I expect more manipulation or volatility at these levels.

I've finished my second cup of coffee, so good luck with your own research and I hope you find something of interest in the above.