I have had a quick look at the results. I would say solid set of results. Right on my customer estimates (see
http://hotcopper.com.au/posts/20268185/single). I had slightly under (858 vs. 862) and expected lower UK and Aus with higher US estimates.
UK numbers look excellent- better than I was expecting. My customer growth curves show a slight inflection on the UK curve occurring right now which looks promising. However, after looking at multiple markets, it is clear that Australia was the outlier, and the subscriber growth given Intuit's aggressive pricing is quite incredible. Xero appears to have won both NZ and Aus and very likely the winner in the UK as well. These three markets alone can justify several multiples of the current market capitalisation. 77K NA subscribers is also a very solid number and bodes very well for the future.
I think what is becoming quite apparent is that Xero want 'quality' customers, and this is where the attention to detail in the drivers of their business really comes to fruition. The two key points I saw was a churn rate of <1% in ANZ, which is only going to drop as time goes by. These companies are also linked to an advisor, are likely to grow in the future and are going to have up and cross-sell opportunities (eventually leading to negative churn). I cross-checked the currency figures and they have made a meaningful difference in the reported results. Clearly the 1m subscribers will be cracked around the time of the next HY. There is also clearly a shift in focus from growth to sustainablility.
The negatives:
- cashburn still high- -46m cf -50m for the pcp. Couldn't find the exact cost of the duplications anywhere in the hosting requirements. It is going to take a little bit of time before Xero is spitting out cash.
- the CAC months a little high for international. Want to see it start to come down.
Overall very solid and highly predictable result. Am happy with the progress. Will wait to see what Intuit presents in a couple of weeks time.
(20min delay)