my analysis

What I found is that all this concern on covenant breaches/debt-refinancing is overdone.

GMG have enough liquidity to last even without the refinancing in May09.
The refinancing however will decide how big the dividend cut will be. To be honest, at 39cents with earnings at 19.5? You're paying P/E of 2x. I don't mind GMG retaining capital this time round and not paying a divi.

Concern over unclarity of covenants?

If one looked at each individual entity of the Fund platform, there is only 1 that is a little too close.
I took the extreme scenario that this fund sells for salvage value of $1 (which is extreme, I also chucked in 200m of liquidation costs).
This is not pleasant as it constitutes 15% of EBIT at GMG level but GMG's gearing ratio is still not in breach.

They claim this is a highly capitalised asset, with investors already throwing in 600-700m new money. This did not change the D/V, so something will need to be done.

UK property prices showed signs of mild turnaround.
There is uncertainty, but I like the odds.

So my analysis tells me it really comes down to just 1 aspect. Btw, GMG have managed to re-finance 4-5Bn of debt at GMG and the Fund level in the past 12 months....Most of these bankers are the same ones dealing with the coming maturities.

There is more...but I should charge for doing this ;)
I'm in at 17.5c, bought more today at 39c.