Thank you for your replies, much appreciated. I was pleased to discover I was on the right track with this. It seemed logical to me but when you are new to something you don't completely understand you can't be sure. I am trying to figure things out as I go.
I am glad paul100 produced the same cost price as this using his formula. But isn't anyone else happy about this? (the $1.67 cost price, not the fact I didn't stuff it up I mean ha ha)
It is now much clearer to me exactly what is going on, and I am becoming even more confident in my position, even if the market and other traders don't agree with me. I want to profit from thinking logically for myself, irrespective of the majority or the market's belief, and then when the difference between the two is great enough, such as CFE and UGL were, and TMR is IMO, then I will profit once the market returns to fundamentals. The only worry to this is shares being issued at unfair prices (this one isn't so bad however). That's the plan anyway... it is made more difficult by my severe lack of experience in this field. This is how I operate in fields I do know what I am talking about, and I am hoping it will translate to share trading also. It is always my intent to take everyone's opinion in, but then think for myself, regardless of what is accepted by the consensus.
Like I said, I was very pleased Paul100 got the same result as me, firstly because it meant I was on the right track but secondly because I think this is fantastic news, but no one else, except maybe paul100, seems to view it this way. Everyone just focuses on the current situation. Let me ask the following questions:
1. Do you believe this $1.72 figure ($1.67 + 5c as per P100's estimate for extra processing) is an accurate representation of copper costs if grades were at 1.5% based on the current ore processing costs, or are these calculations inaccurate, and if so what should the figure then be (and where did I err)?
2. Based on the fact the last 6 reports had grades from 1.43 - 1.72%, and this grade was only 1.08%, do you believe a 1 out of 7 grade is not indicative of the average grade and is more likely to be an abberration? (1 out of 7 folks)
3. If so, would you have been happy with a result of $1.72 cash costs, reduced from $2.37 from the previous quarter, especially considering the selling price of copper has risen, um, I will estimate 50c, since the last quarter? Some of this due to an increase in costs from the industry as a whole and especially Chile, producer of 40% of total CU. Take off 50c from both sides of the equation, sale price and cost price, and you are left with $1.22 cost price.
4. Do you believe costs will decrease in the future due to a settling of operational activities now that ramping up has been completed, improved recovery rates, or any other factors?
5. Would the tripling of production constitute management "actually doing something instead of just talking things up" at these costs and these profits per pound?
6. How about the quadrupling of production?
7. Do you believe open pit mining will occur, and if so do you believe there will be synergy leading to a further reduction of cash costs? Or will there be other cost cutting factors through an open pit mine? (No one answered me this in the other thread :( Might have to research it myself :( :( :( )
8. What PE rating do you believe will be achieved once all of the following has been completed, on Project 4000 alone?
9. Do you believe the company has further upside potential aside from project 4000?
IMO the only thing that could go wrong here is if grades somehow remain this low, as Katana and Paul4000 have stated, but from all the evidence I have witnessed, I just don't believe this to be the case. Many times I have heard that people want to wait until the company has proven themselves and then they will be satisfied or will buy or whatever. IMO this is when it will be too late. My belief is if you are able to have a reasonably accurate estimate into what is going to occur in the future, then you can make money by buying in before everyone jumps aboard because it has already been proven. I just personally perceive there to be a tremendous lack of patience for TMR and such a severe punishment for 1 quarter's low grades.
Thanks for reading if anyone did, but am spending too much time posting when in the end it probably won't achieve anything ha ha but it is interesting and I do learn things from it. And I've done my knee but is getting better ha ha. Also, nothing I write will ever be intended as personal critcism, just disagreements (unless it's in retaliation >:)
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- my calculations 1.67 per lb at avg grades
my calculations 1.67 per lb at avg grades, page-6
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Last
0.4¢ |
Change
0.000(0.00%) |
Mkt cap ! $4.123M |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
0.4¢ | 0.4¢ | 0.4¢ | $2.8K | 700.0K |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
13 | 7238328 | 0.3¢ |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
0.4¢ | 1549925 | 2 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
13 | 7238328 | 0.003 |
25 | 18344166 | 0.002 |
17 | 43300203 | 0.001 |
0 | 0 | 0.000 |
0 | 0 | 0.000 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
0.004 | 1549925 | 2 |
0.005 | 11334779 | 16 |
0.006 | 4359766 | 7 |
0.007 | 3478571 | 5 |
0.008 | 1000000 | 1 |
Last trade - 13.06pm 28/08/2024 (20 minute delay) ? |
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