my call: bear market bottom

Hi All,

Haven't posted on this thread for a long time, though have a read still from time to time.

Seems to me a general consensus that we have another leg down to 3200 to 3600 to come. I've been thinking 3200 myself recently.

However, today's XAO action got me rethinking this target. Today's Asian action in particular suggests that the big players were seemingly caught off guard by the US rally last night (though I'm not sure why).

Anyway, typical with any bottom there was the usual push down so the key stocks hit their downside weekly chart targets before the week ended (and to get set for the rally).

IMO it was quite clear that there was a major push today to get BHP and WPL in particular to hit their downside targets quickly (BHP $24 - though BHP only made $24.40 though I'd say that's close enough; and WPL $36 - hit $35.50 I think). These 2 and RIO are the 3 key stocks in the market and were the last to go at the (true) top in June last year and then May this year and so were the last to hit their targets at what I am now considering the bottom (though RIO had already broken well below a key support level a few days ago).

Anyway, following on from today, I thought I'd check the channels for the key indices from 1988 when the current bull market post-87 began (XAO 1200). For XAO I had the bottom of the channel for this period at about 3200, however on revisiting this I actually think about 3900 is more appropriate (which is more or less where we have found support the last few days). Checking the other major indices, they all are on their long term trendlines from approx 1991. Another guide is that the 50 fib from 1991 to 2007 for XAO is 4000 (1200 to 6800) so I think that's close enough to where we are now and it so makes sense for this level to hold.

Also, all the major markets have formed bullish descending triangles in the last week which IMO suggest an imminent break tonight.

The US futures chart looks good to me at the moment - I can't see how this can possibly break hard down from here as IMO its not sufficiently overbought on a daily chart. Also, with today's XAO and BHP action, those now have oversold indicators and only suggest upside to me.

Anyway, at the risk of major egg on my face, my call is we have a bear market bottom and I'm backing this up by happily holding a considerable long position over the weekend and expect a major move up on Monday.

Zanzibar