my cdy valuation

I have been asked what CDY is roughly worth. My short answer would be about double the current market cap or about $32m in current market conditions.

The 5c valuations that came separately from the previous placement then the Japanese Advangen merger also support a valuation around this level.

My guesstimate tallies around $16m for Lung Dx, $10m for CX Bladder and $6m for hair loss products only. That said, the value of the Hair Loss business will IMHO double on news of an appropriate Chinese distribution deal, and any news of improved sales and distribution arrangements in Japan.

Bulls may add another $10m for other diagnostic pipelines as they stand at the moment. I've excluded them as insurance on the possibility of overvaluing the other stuff.

Getting the diabetic nephropathy clinical program properly up and going may also be a huge driver on early indications of success. $30m + for this with results @Stage 2 has been suggested before. Others have held the view that CDY could become a T/O target if risks associated with Stage 3 clinical trials are perceived to be low.

I don't assign value for possible future GMP production and sales of midkine, midkine antibodies and midkine hair loss product development. Nor have I assigned a value for IP relating to anti post surgical adhesion, myocardial disease, heart attack hot shots, T Cell regulation e.t.c.

My personal view is that CDY would do well to countenance parallel clinical programs with one or more partners. Valuation in this space can occur only as partnerships are signed. I do accept that the company needs to start somewhere and with the most prospective therapeutic candidate (likely to be diabetic nephropathy).

As posted yesterday, market jitters with resources and the AUD may also assist small biotechs to get a more reasonable valuation. Today we have Eygpt about to explode ... again .... I know not what the world or the market will do next but it's unlikely to affect demand for cancer diagnostics. Demand for hair loss tonic will also be there tomorrow.

Revelations that cdy is now earning real revenue may soon have a positive impact on market sentiment.

DYOR. Read all of the previous analyst reports as a starting point and reach your own informed conclusion. Don't rely on my rough workings and likely misunderstandings, omissions and plentiful mistakes.

cheers