This is from the July update: [ATTACH] The current permits only...

This is from the July update:

The current permits only allow bulk sampling with a limit of 20,000 m3 per annum and only a single blast per day. NTL want to get into that rate of extraction as soon as they can. At the maximum permitted extraction rate it will take 7½ years to mine the above resource. Assuming a 90% recovery rate we get 281,546 ounces of bullion. If I make an assumption for an AISC of A$1200/oz and a bullion price of A$1600/oz to give a net A$400/oz then the potential value of the Dubbo resource is A$113M. This equates to A$15M p.a. NTL will be producing concentrate and so the price that they will get is less. Pure guess here but if NTL clears concentrate at 80% of bullion price then the annual revenue becomes A$12M. Useful, but not exciting.
Bonanza adds additional resource for a total of 427,600 oz which is an increase of 188% on the above figures. Ignoring the increased g/T of Bonanza, the total value increases to A$169M and the annual revenue to A$22.6M.
Using current shares issued, the above gives a total value of 8.16c/share. Unfortunately, the limited extraction volume would require 14 years to get all the ore out but I think we c an assume a favourable government is in power over that period and the company is allowed to go to full mining.

I have not included any potential resource. Nor have I used any dilution in shares from forthcoming issue and option raising. I only did this to get a handle on current value if NTL is not able to get permits for a full mining activity.

I have to conclude that NTL is a screaming buy at today’s 1.6c. Forget about the Labour/Green threat unless you think they can pull the plug on the bulk sampling (which I very much doubt).
I must admit, I have been getting a bit concerned in the past few days over the election threat and what it might mean to the company. This was even to the extent of thinking of selling out now and coming back after the election but the analysis, crude as it is, gives me more confidence to stay.

Someone has just said the "cost of recovery" is under $600/oz. Cannot tell what this includes but I suspect the AISC will be higher. Even so, it sounds as though my figures will be low and so all the more value.