- 8/14 development wells active = 57%. I'm gonna round that up...

- 8/14 development wells active = 57%. I'm gonna round that up to a 70% strike rate given the comment at the bottom of the table on page 11.
- 72 wells are planned to be drilled in the next six months. Let's call it 70.
- first flush (as per TRRC website) appears to be 40-90 bopd for these wells - let's assume they level out at 10 bopd (a pretty conservative estimate IMO).
- 70% * 70 * 10bopd = 490 bopd added in next six months from fairway.
- 60 high impact wells to be drilled in next six months.
- Let's assume 10% of these high impacts come in as producers.
- Let's assume a "high impact" well produces at 50 bopd (again, conservative).
- 10% * 60 * 50 bopd = 300 bopd.
- 735 (existing) + 490 + 300 = 1525 bopd as at July Quarterly.

So I'm estimating ~ 1500 bopd (maybe a little less given we're already a month into the six) as at the July Quarterly. Assuming (accounting for declines) the trend continues, then around 2000-2200 bopd at the End of Year.

What's a 100million+ BOO (not BOE) P1 proven reserves company with 2000 bopd production worth? I'dve thought +$1/share easily. The question is, what happens inbetween now and then..?

Flame away.