my current thoughts

Before yesterdays great ann, Arixtra sales in the US were conservatively estimated to be over US$150m in 2008.

So we'll call that $200m Australian. acl's generic is expect to take over half Arixtra sales, but lets say they get 50%, so $100m.

acl were expect to gross 35% of the sales figure. There is reason to suggest that this could increase, as the project is more advanced & carries less risk. But I'll be conservative again & say 30%.

So that $30m. Most biotechs have PER well over 20, especially as acl will have a fast sales growing product. But being conservative again I'll use 20, So that's $600m. Current mkt cap $91m.

These figures are only based on taking mkt share from Arixtra. Remember that it will be cost competitive with Lovenox, & is proven to be twice as safe & only administered half as much. There will be publications recommending the use of Arixtra over Lovenox.

acl have little risk. The ANDA approval is straight forward. The market for the product is proven. There are no risky clinical trials.

acl also have the wonderful HyACT products, which could well be worth much more than the heparin product eventually.

A new major pharma partner for the heparin product should be fairly easy to find, imo. As the project carries little risk & will give good exposure to a market which is not covered by many of the big companies. With a bit of work, a large partner could still lodge the ANDA in December this year.

All said, why would a big pharma do a deal with acl. The company is so cheap & offers so much - it's better to take them over. They will have to pay a good price of course, because the major shareholders know the value here.

One final point is that it is interesting that APP did not sell their shares in acl, despite knowing that the price would fall when the deal fell through. They could well be an interested party. As could gsk, the makers of Arixtra. It would take out the only generic competition to Arixtra & give them access to acl's cheaper, quicker & better manufacturing process. It is known that gsk are interested in acl's manufacturing process & they do need to find a new manufacturer soon.

Thanks for listening!