I know you guys love this, and I just can't help myself :-)I...

I know you guys love this, and I just can't help myself :-)
I need you all to sell, so I can pick this stock up later at a cheaper price thank you.


First, I am not worried if everyone comes down on me, that just shows a lot of stressed people out there. And it shows fear, I am just one person going against the flow yet it seems to worry so many.

Someone said what about Japan, I say what about it, yea, they say its out of recession, but its an export nation, so where is the demand coming from? Also, why do they just focus on this one market and not talk in depth about the fall out from other markets that is building?

The US slid yesterday which now indicates to me the second crash/correction is starting, NASDAQ -2.75% DOW -2% S&P -2.43% And of course China -5.8%

Ozy news reports are rubbish, e.g. (ING's report, Japan out of recession and that was about it) companies like this have a very big vested interest in the stock markets and keeping people calm, so they pull only what they can find that is good out of the news. No mention about the large drop in China, no mention about July exports out of China the lowest so far, no mention about FDI in China which has now dropped by around 36% No mention of resource stock piling in China, all of this will catch up on Oz. Exports are a great gauge, if they are dropping it says one thing, the US and EU are still sick.

This cycle will most likely now feed off itself. I would expect today in China for people to panic and pull off even more money driving their market down more, China's stock market is often driven by miss informed local people who just dump cash onto it when they see it going up, 700,000 stock market accounts were signed up only a few weeks ago because people just saw money going up, that market drives often on pure speculation. I am not sure if the Chinese gov can stop the retraction at the moment because M2 money supply has not really dropped, but bank lending has fallen off and worry has set in on poor data out of the US. The Chinese gov may force banks to lend more just to keep things calm before the up coming reunion of the communist party wich is on Oct-2 I think. But sooner or later all these loans and money will have to slow down or stop because its going to increase non preforming loans and that will scare investors.

I have been watching the circus in China for months just waiting for this fall out to happen. This so could GDP created in China is at best just paper, print enough money, flood the country with it, let banks lend under any condition and you are always going to create asset bubbles which GDP is partly measured from. (Sounds a bit like oz, big stimulus, first home owners grants, low interest, sounds like a sure way to create a bubble here as well) As far as I am aware GMG still has assets in Hong Kong, China and Japan. To me that says GMG has risk in those markets. Hong Kong rides on the back of China, what ever direction China goes Hong Kong is likely to follow. Considering that most agree that China's property markets are just one big bubble it says to me that GMG has a good chance of losing value/income from a decrease in prices over there.

As for refinancing of GMG, so what, that does not mean their stock value is worth what it is, that just means the banks don't want to end up with bank loss, its in their interest at the moment to role loans over

I don't think I have ever said that GMG and GPT are not worth investing in, all I have said is right now its not the time to hold stock in these companies because everything is ready to crash for the second round.

Take a close look at the US, 2008 lost 1.4 million homes, its estimated that 2009 will go up to 3.5 million lost. It its not going to take many US people long to figure out that its just cheaper to forclose on the house and find cheap rent than to keep dumping money into property that keeps losing its value and that most likely they will lose anyhow. So many commercial companies hold rentable apartments that have values dropping. End result is more forclosers means cheaper homes/apartments.

push-outs, check how many push-outs are popping up in the US banking system, banks would now rather role loans on commercial property than have them default. about $3.5 trillion worth of commercial real estate loans is held by banks in the US, its now estimated that we are already at 750 billion in delinquency rate. Now they are talking about 150 banks closing up because of debt exposer to this and credit markets.

This is just a really rough outlook on what is going on. You can all find the data online, reuters, bloomberg CNN are all talking about such events now. Common sense says we are heading for trouble. None of you have anything to lose by pulling money out now to reinvest later on.

Lastly, it was speculation that drove these markets past their true values, its going to be this very same speculation that is now going to crash it. Speculation plays a big role, and with many websites now pointing to gloom this will make investors nervous and drop stock.

Check out what Warran Buffet has been doing, he's been dumping stock left right and center and going for safe healthcare bets.

I think GMG will lose at least 10cents of its value, maybe more.