Two insto's I've talked to: a) one turned it down - waiting for franked dividends (great - we'll have some buying come in once that's announced, b) one said that they'd like to see it a bit further down the turnaround path prior to buying (d'oh...oh well, we'll see some buying from them sooner or later).
He's trying posting a spreadsheet...he're hoping it looks ok.
TOX FREE SOLUTIONS - SUMMARY OPTIMISTIC, BUT REALISABLE SCENARIO Share Capital 532,747,028 fully diluted Price $0.115 23/02/2002
KWINANA 2006 2007 2008 TDU Capacity 1.0 2.9 5.0 TPH Production 2,400 9,600 33,600 TPA Revenue $3,600,000 $6,720,000 $20,160,000 EBITDA $1,800,000 $3,494,400 $10,080,000 Waste Water Revenue $990,000 $2,640,000 $3,300,000 Note: this would require expanded pondage, and using Karatha EBITDA $345,000 $920,000 $1,150,000
Packaged Waste Revenue $100,000 $150,000 $200,000 Can expand on site EBITDA $600,000 $990,000 $1,320,000
PORT HEADLAND Revenue $5,700,000 $6,686,100 $6,953,544 Note: this would require expanded pondage, and using Karatha EBITDA $2,850,000 $3,476,772 $3,754,914
SUBTOTAL MORE CERTAIN, AND ORGANIC GROWTH Revenue $12,190,000 $20,696,100 $36,238,544 EBITDA $6,195,000 $10,381,172 $18,179,914 Dep'n & Amort ($300,000) ($800,000) ($1,000,000) Interest $0 $0 ($150,000) PBT $5,895,000 $9,581,172 $17,029,914 Tax ($891,026) $20m of tax losses NPAT $5,895,000 $9,581,172 $16,138,888 eps $0.011 $0.018 $0.030 PE 10.4x 6.4x 3.8x NORMALISED RESULTS NPAT $4,126,500 $6,706,820 $11,920,940 simulates full tax eps $0.008 $0.013 $0.022 PE 14.8x 9.1x 5.1x Value of Tax losses what are the tax losses actually worth? Tax credits used $1,768,500 $2,874,352 $4,217,948 Discount factor 1.0x 1.10 1.21 low discount rate - this is a low risk business DCF $1,768,500 $2,613,047 $3,485,908 Cumulative Value $7,867,455 Per share tax value $0.015 Revised PE 12.9x 8.0x 4.5x
OTHER OPTIONS KARATHA Probable, but Less Certain work outside of waste water Revenue $750,000 $1,125,000 EBITDA $247,500 $371,250
ACQUISITIONS Speculative - they'll definitely do something, just a matter of how big Revenue $500,000 $750,000 EBITDA $165,000 $247,500
SUB-TOTAL -OTHER OPTIONS pretty modest for the moment Revenue $1,250,000 $1,875,000 EBITDA $412,500 $618,750