I guess what martis does is highlight the need for some of you to use these forums more appropriately.
Never NEVER buy or sell based on the recommendation of a post, no matter how well versed, referenced or indeed apparently correct.
ALWAYS make your own decisions and DYOR.
The problem is that not all posters are here for altruistic reasons...you may be shoked to hear this, but some are actually here only to make money from us all.
Are those gasps of horror I hear?
lol
It is obvious to all but the most dweebesque that martis is a short-term trader, mostly on the back of t+3 driven initiative...and mostly based on momentum breaks. He misses out on the bottom and misses out on the top, but instead chooses to buy the break...indeed, help generate the break...for reasons of safety.
Given he is backed, I assume to the tune of some 50-70% by t+3 credit, he needs to ensure minimum hold times...as such, he buys the break, pumps it to buggery, both n the forums and via the depth, then exits most at t+2.
He suggests he is selling out to chase other rainbows...lol...a classic less than sophisticated approach.
There is nothing wrong with any of this by the way...NOTHING!
The problem stems however from a modicum of accuracy he achieves with his Technical Analysis, which he greatly enforces every time he is even remotely correct...but passes over as not his problem when he is not...which has attracted a following.
Frankly, I have seen the results of most calss, and counter assessed myself many of them...I have agreed about 50/50...and of those I agreed, it was never more than about 80%.
In martis' world, everything rises or falls 1000 points...there is nothing in between.
I first came to know martis on here with the sub-prime "joke"...and his calls for 1000 points down. In fact we had quite a few heated debates on the issue, with my oposiong position of new highs within 2 months clearly counter to his end-of-world views and need to have everyone at least thinking it was possible.
This is of course his angle...plant the seed, water it every day and watch it grow roots. Pretty soon you have a dweeb-tree!
Whilst martis posts for martis...I think a few may wish to think twice before throwing stones here?
Now, as for his predictions...they are all either mega up, or mega down...none of them ever do entirely what he says however, although they do often move somewhat in the direction he suggests, even if only a small fraction of it...lol...which he feels gives bragging rights.
I will not criticise martis beyond this, other than the fact he lives and breathes on sentiment driven runs...and I have no doubt is making reasonable money given the nature and timing of his calls.
I suspect he could make much more however if he were to adjust his ways and apply a more appropriste level of skill in the FA side of the fence...perhaps in his next 30 years of trading?
Martis will no doubt have a string of "I used to hold 1,000,000 shares in xyz company and now they are $10" stories...this is the nature of rock hopping the way he does, purely on TA. He gets the intial triggers, trades them, then moves on...not realising the true value and shifting nature of what he had.
FA requires a whole different skill set however.
As for his views on CVI...we have a very vertical chart, so a correction is a real possibility...on this score he is right. And if he were to pump from the open with a few large bids, he could well generate a decent spike and pull-back...in effect ensuring hs prophecy came true.
But is this prophetic or pathetic?
I guess that depends on what we post about such things.
Anyway, in my view, without news we need a bit more consolidation at the current levels, with a perfect scenario seeing the classic early morning mini-sell-down, followed by a low volume halt of the sell-down on the back of exhaustion of sellers, which confirms support...then the afternoon rally as new entrants read the formation of support as a trigger to a safe zone to buy in.
The alternative is a rather quick rise with little foundation and whilst we may see 30c hit, it will do little but flush out those temporaries who would have otherwise exited this morning at current levels...in my previous scenario...only this time, we would end the day with no support, new entrants sitting on their hands and all those who sold at the spike doing their best to push the stock down with bid stacking and sacrificial sells to facilitate a lower re-entry.
It is this latter scenario that martis is trying to generate...for the good of the stock, I hope he fails.
In fact, by showing his hand in this way...assuming he is of course genuine in his stated position...he has done little but open himself up to a royal flush. This is where sophisticated holders, aware a large position needs to be liquidated, cap the stock and push it down in an attempt to generate a stop-loss sell down.
Such scenarios are more easily generated when it is known a large line wants out.
Silly boy.
Cheers!
CVI Price at posting:
0.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
