my hypothesis

I put down a hypothesis plan for LYP using Coldry Tech. See if anyone can have a better one. LYP can build 4 million ton/year coldry plant with $800m. The figures from ECT announcements are all based on 2mt/year. $400m is needed for 2mt/year so that I assume 4mt needs about $800m. Theoretically should be cheaper. 2mt for shandy and 2mt for export. $13.00 is the production cost per ton of coldry capital interest cost included ( see roadshow PDF). As LYP mine the Lignite themself, the raw material input cost for per ton of coldry is about $3.00. Royalty $5.00. So total cost of coldry per ton is $21.00. Considering the water benefit ( not only water saving, but destilled water will lower the maintanance cost as well). It is quite safe to say $20.00/t. %2~%3 of carbon reduction will bring in about $10m ~$15m/year. Let take the lower figure, Say $10m. That is about $5.oo/t. So the final cost for LYP per year is about $15.00 * 2mton= $30m. The free permits from the government worth $240m/year (PAS correct me if i am wrong). So LYP is in profit of about $210m/year from free carbon permit. ( carbon tax is about $450m/year for LYP). Of course %2~%3 reduction is not enough, but this is the first stage, can be achieved in 2015~2016. The final target year is 2020. the export part: Coldry cost $20.00/t, freight cost $20.00/t. FOB $40.00, current market price $85.00. (won't be much lower than that in the future as it is close to the coal miners' bottom line). Leave a bit flexibility, say $40.00 porfit/t give LYP a $40.00*2mt=80m/year profit. It is just a thought provoker. Any possible better idea much appreciated.