my initial thoughts on the delisting attempt, page-58

Refined Assumptions

1.Capital Expenditure & Debt

• Capex: Expected to reduce significantly after a peak investment phase (retooling, automation, sustainability).

• FY23 Capex: ~$145M

• Forward Capex: Management guides a material reduction toward$80M–$90M p.a.

• Free Cash Flow (FCF): Likely to improve materially — higher earnings + lower capex = more cash to repay debt or return to shareholders.

• Debt Reduction Potential: FY24 net debt ~$663M, with scope to reduce by ~$100M+ over 12–24 months if FCF strengthens.

2.Implied Shareholder Value Uplift

If we assume:

• FY25 EBITDA = ~$270M

• Capex = ~$85M

• Interest = ~$50M

• Tax = ~$35M

• Normalized FCF = ~$100M/year

With gearing declining and operating leverage improving, therisk profile of cash flows improves, which justifies a higherEV/EBITDA multipleandequity multiple.

3.Updated Valuation Ranges

a.EV/EBITDA Valuation (Revised)

	Scenario	EV/EBITDA	EBITDA	EV	Net Debt	Equity Value	Share Price (342M shares)
1	Conservative	6.0x	$270M	$1.62B	$663M	$957M	$2.80
2	Moderate/Base	6.5x	$270M	$1.76B	$663M	$1.10B	$3.22
3	Aggressive	7.0x	$270M	$1.89B	$663M	$1.23B	$3.59

4.Control Premium Approach (Revised)

Last public offer was$0.84/share. Applying arevised control premium of 40–50%, considering operational tailwinds and FCF outlook:

• 40% → $0.84 × 1.40 = $1.18

• 50% → $0.84 × 1.50 = $1.26

But these are still backward-looking. Based on forward multiples and improved FCF profile, those premiums understate fair value.

Revised Fair 100% Control Valuation

Taking all into account (lower capex, deleveraging, forward EBITDA, strategic control, limited public float), areasonable acquisition rangeshould be:

$2.75 – $3.25 per share

This would value the company at:

• ~$950M–$1.1Bin equity value

• A forwardEV/EBITDA multiple of 6.5–7x, aligned with peers in packaging/logistics with improving capital intensity

• Reflects optionality from future dividend reinstatement or capital returns