my insights

Here are a couple of insights I have picked up doing a little research

First of all this test will not tell you where your cancer is, it just tells you that you might have breast cancer (I highlight the might, as this test provides a 14-20% false positive reading)

Hence you will still have to get a mammogram to actually find out where the cancer is.

This is very important!!!

This means that this test will actually not save any lives! Even if you believe that this Fermiscan test produces zero false negatives.

Why???

All positive results, which will be about 14-20% of tests, will have to get a mammogram to actually find the cancer and since a mammogram has a false negative rate of 20-25%, 20-25% of cancers will still get missed despite the original positive result from the fermiscan test.

The Government can not afford to give 14-20% of women a biopsy, if the mammogram comes up negative while the fermiscan test says positive, it will cost the Government’s hundreds of millions and give 1 in 5 women the unnecessary fear that they might have breast cancer.

Secondly,

The false positive rate of a mammogram ranges seems to be between 2-7%, depending on which country you look at (due to differently levels of training for radiologists). It is far from a perfect test but with only 13,200 women getting diagnosed with breast cancer a year out of 5 million (only Australia) and of those 13,200, 80% will survive. The roll-out of this test which costs twice the price of the mammogram ($249 vs. $180) would not save any lives but end up causing more stress for women and cost the Government hundreds of millions more than what they are already spending……

Thirdly,

If you fully dilute the number of shares on issue with all the executive options, then the current share price implies that this company is already worth $250m+!!!

Fourthly,

One of the directors has sold his entire shareholding at $1. This director is the head of radiology at Symbion, Ronald Shnier. To be fair Mr Shnier still does have exposure through his options but still if he’s a confident insider why would he sell his shares???


So can someone please explain the risk adjusted upside from here? I’m not a “basher”, I use to own the stock from 26c but sold out recently due to further research……
Would be very interested in an opposed informed opinion which is claimed by many and given by few…….