Can I preface by saying this is layperson research, and no links are provided as I didn't note them.
I tried finding indications of the depth in the limestone where malampaya hit gas, but didn't find anything concrete/understandable. What I did find was:
1. Tight non-porous is expected at top of limestone. Malampaya has same, and it was gas heavy (good to see high gas in NIDO results) - but you can't get gas out commercially from tight non-porous limestone.
2. In a farmout report "presence of high gas in upper formation would indicate that the non-porous is a "gas theif" and would not be viewed favourably. (bad point.)
3. From my limited interpretation of Malampaya seismic, it seems the wells are placed about 150-200m into the limestone - Ie, perhaps non-porous was more prolific in the high section, and reduced into the lower section where the substantial reservoir is (good point, as compares to what NDO has found so far...)
4. It seems that the two finds are quite comparable - meaning we may be about to hit a gas reservoir, with condensate ?? (speculation, the reservoir could be empty/non commercial if too much gas has leaked into upper limestone)
5. My limited conclusion - there is probably a 100% chance of "something" being there, but it is a question of whether the limestone in the lower section turns more porous, allowing the gas to be commercially extracted. The limestone needs to turn porous sooner rather than later, because the more non-porous above the porous section, the more gas that has been "stolen" from the reservoir.
If not commercially extractible, it is worth nothing.
Anyone more knowledgeable care to expand on any of this? Does it sound about right according to your interpretation?
5.
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Can I preface by saying this is layperson research, and no links...
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