my latest call on nab, page-24

re: nab going to $23.80 on weekly chart Hi Timetraveller,

So far, we have had $24.00, $23.80 and naow $20.00. Is this technically based or fundamentally determined?

With ~1.5B shares on issue, $20 translates to an MC of $30B.

So either you are suggesting that the whole market is about to collapse, or that the NAB is going to virtually halve its profit, going forward.

If the latter, then that suggests a major, major corporate failure of some sort up there on the near term horizon.

If, however, the former, then you are pre-supposing a likely recession in Australia, and the overall market correcting back much, much closer to my suggested 2900 market (posted back in December) for year end 2004. That 2900 figure though was premised on the likely damage that the appreciating A$ would do to our economy going forward (something which is shown quite starkly on p22 of today's AFR.

Alternatively, are you simply plucking figures out of the air again?

Few on this Board were likely to have been around the last time the financial sector weathered the storm. That was in 97-98 and before then back in the early 90s.

I can discern the trend. The question is whether I can fathom the logic.