my npv calculation for yml

theres no point getting everybody excited to expect big news of a 'sealed'infrastructure deal at the AGM, although I think they should update us on the general progress of 'talks'

doesnt matter what happens - whether a deal is inked with BHP or FMG, coz the company will make a tonne of earnings per each share fundamentally once in production, AND , they can easily issue more scrip for capex if they want to build a rail link to FMGs 'open to third parties' rail line thats being built.

So IM VERY CONFIDENT that YML will be a producer!

They have the ore in the ground

They can EASILY raise the funds to develop a mine

No.shares is so small that they can even dilute further and raise the money to build a rail link if necessary to FMGs line

So whats the problem??

Why such a HUUUUUUUUUUUGE discount to what its earnings per share will be???

there should be a discount of course, but the discount is waaaaaaaay too big, given the EPS these guys will make each yr.

If youre working on NPV - get the earnings like I did using say 70USD price, 48 AUD costs and discount these back over say 10 yrs for now using a say 10% discount rate. Take away the CAPEX of say 200mill (this includes the capex needed for rail link) and divide by the amount of shares.

youll get NPV per share. U shld probably add another 50mill shares to capital too for future dilution.

So

yr1, yr2, yr3............yr 15

[70USD(1.13) - 48AUD]* 3mill proddy/discount rate 1.10 is first year earnings

So 105mill revenue for yr 1
Say 105mill revenue for yr 2
105mill revenue for yr 3

The next 12 years assume 5 mill proddy

so [80AUD revenue - 48AUD costs]* 5/ discount rate 1.10

= 145mill

145 mill for yrs 4 - 15 (12 years including yr 15)

145mill * 12 = 1.74bill

add the first 3 years : 315mill

So 2 billion in cash flows over 15 years

take away CAPEX of circa 250mill : 1.75 billion

TAX 30% off the total cahflows : 1.23 bill

add AT LEAST double the shares : 170mill plus add another 30mill options to round to 200mill capital of shares + options

So 1.23bill/200mill equity =

$6.15 per share NPV