Hi Nathan,
the market cap has nothing to do with whether they get $700 million funding, it is the value of the project that you should be focussing on. The market cap is a function of the share price, the share price is clearly volatile and doesn't necessarily value the project appropriately.
A friend of mine emailed Tony recently to ask whether the current share price would have any bearing on a deal with a JV partner. The answer was no because the deal will be based on the VALUE OF THE PROJECT not the current share price. So the market cap is irrelevant. If you want to read that email with the questions Tony answered it is on HC somewhere posted under my name.
What if you'd done your calculations using the market cap a few weeks ago, you would have totally different numbers -right? Because the market cap was about 2.5 times larger. That would have given you a capex of 5.6 times market cap. The share price is a volatile, the value of the project isn't. Share price and market cap are functions of market sentiment rather than the value of the project and the net present value of the project is $3.80 per share.
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